| Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 207 | 93¢ → 91¢ | $189 | −$4 −1.9% |
| Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 155 | 72¢ → 74¢ | $114 | +$2 +1.5% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 4d | Yes | 216 | 50¢ → 52¢ | $112 | +$4 +3.7% |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 146 | 69¢ → 69¢ | $101 | −$1 −0.5% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 4d | Yes | 354 | 29¢ → 28¢ | $97 | −$4 −3.8% |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 87 | 83¢ → 80¢ | $69 | −$3 −4.1% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Ends in 38d | No | 78 | 78¢ → 79¢ | $62 | +$0 +0.6% |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 75 | 82¢ → 79¢ | $59 | −$2 −3.6% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 4d | No | 82 | 71¢ → 73¢ | $59 | +$1 +2.1% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?Ends in 96d | Yes | 208 | 33¢ → 28¢ | $59 | −$9 −13% |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 82 | 71¢ → 72¢ | $59 | +$1 +1.8% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?Ends in 250d | No | 138 | 44¢ → 42¢ | $57 | −$3 −4.7% |
| Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 55 | 95¢ → 96¢ | $53 | +$1 +1.2% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?Ends in 250d | Yes | 82 | 62¢ → 59¢ | $48 | −$3 −6.3% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 4d | No | 98 | 49¢ → 48¢ | $47 | −$1 −2.4% |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 162 | 29¢ → 28¢ | $46 | −$1 −1.3% |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 162 | 28¢ → 28¢ | $46 | +$1 +3.0% |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 62 | 70¢ → 74¢ | $46 | +$2 +4.5% |
| Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 256 | 18¢ → 18¢ | $45 | −$1 −2.7% |
| Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by November 30, 2026?Ends in 38d | No | 50 | 93¢ → 89¢ | $44 | −$2 −4.8% |
| US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 48 | 89¢ → 91¢ | $43 | +$1 +1.2% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by June 30, 2027?Ends in 250d | No | 69 | 65¢ → 62¢ | $42 | −$2 −5.5% |
| Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by March 31, 2027?Ends in 159d | No | 90 | 47¢ → 46¢ | $42 | −$1 −1.7% |
| Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 45 | 89¢ → 91¢ | $41 | +$1 +1.8% |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 155 | 26¢ → 26¢ | $40 | −$1 −1.9% |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 55 | 72¢ → 72¢ | $39 | −$0 −1.0% |
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 61 | 62¢ → 62¢ | $38 | −$0 −0.8% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 40 | 93¢ → 92¢ | $37 | −$1 −1.9% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 46 | 72¢ → 75¢ | $34 | +$1 +3.8% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 47 | 69¢ → 70¢ | $33 | +$0 +0.4% |
| Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 33 | 93¢ → 92¢ | $30 | −$0 −1.6% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 37 | 74¢ → 82¢ | $30 | +$3 +9.8% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?Ends in 96d | No | 92 | 43¢ → 33¢ | $30 | −$10 −24% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Ends in 73d | Yes | 37 | 73¢ → 79¢ | $29 | +$2 +8.2% |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 136 | 22¢ → 21¢ | $29 | −$2 −6.6% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Ends ended | No | 32 | 75¢ → 82¢ | $26 | +$2 +8.6% |
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 61 | 38¢ → 39¢ | $24 | +$0 +1.3% |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 130 | 18¢ → 18¢ | $23 | $0 0.0% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 28 | 83¢ → 82¢ | $23 | −$0 −1.8% |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 77 | 28¢ → 27¢ | $20 | −$1 −6.2% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 61 | 33¢ → 31¢ | $19 | −$2 −7.5% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 11d | No | 219 | 8¢ → 9¢ | $19 | +$1 +6.2% |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 11d | Yes | 231 | 8¢ → 8¢ | $19 | $0 0.0% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Ends in 434d | No | 51 | 34¢ → 35¢ | $18 | +$1 +2.9% |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 25 | 68¢ → 70¢ | $17 | +$0 +2.3% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Ends in 73d | Yes | 18 | 83¢ → 94¢ | $17 | +$2 +13% |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 57 | 29¢ → 28¢ | $16 | −$0 −1.7% |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 22 | 70¢ → 69¢ | $15 | −$0 −2.6% |
| Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 19 | 69¢ → 78¢ | $15 | +$2 +12% |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 53 | 28¢ → 28¢ | $15 | +$0 +1.3% |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 50 | 33¢ → 30¢ | $15 | −$2 −9.2% |
| Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 19 | 77¢ → 73¢ | $14 | −$1 −5.8% |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 44 | 32¢ → 31¢ | $14 | −$0 −3.0% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Ends in 73d | Yes | 46 | 43¢ → 26¢ | $12 | −$8 −40% |
| Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 44 | 27¢ → 27¢ | $12 | −$0 −2.0% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by March 31 2027?Ends in 159d | Yes | 52 | 21¢ → 20¢ | $10 | −$1 −7.1% |
| Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 117 | 7¢ → 9¢ | $10 | +$2 +27% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 100 | 7¢ → 9¢ | $9 | +$2 +21% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 37 | 37¢ → 22¢ | $8 | −$6 −42% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by June 30, 2027?Ends in 250d | Yes | 20 | 33¢ → 39¢ | $8 | +$1 +17% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 119 | 10¢ → 7¢ | $8 | −$4 −32% |
| Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 147 | 8¢ → 5¢ | $7 | −$5 −41% |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 10 | 70¢ → 72¢ | $7 | +$0 +2.1% |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Ends in 69d | Yes | 77 | 11¢ → 10¢ | $7 | −$1 −9.7% |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 22 | 30¢ → 32¢ | $7 | +$0 +5.0% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 37 | 38¢ → 19¢ | $7 | −$7 −51% |
| Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?Ends in 8d | Yes | 166 | 4¢ → 4¢ | $6 | −$0 −6.0% |
| Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 21 | 32¢ → 28¢ | $6 | −$1 −14% |
| Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 6 | 82¢ → 85¢ | $5 | +$0 +2.4% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Ends in 73d | Yes | 28 | 18¢ → 19¢ | $5 | +$0 +5.5% |
| US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 36 | 14¢ → 14¢ | $5 | $0 0.0% |
| Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 19 | 27¢ → 23¢ | $4 | −$1 −17% |
| Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 45 | 6¢ → 9¢ | $4 | +$1 +50% |
| Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for China by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 100 | 8¢ → 4¢ | $4 | −$4 −50% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Ends ended | Yes | 13 | 18¢ → 19¢ | $2 | +$0 +3.0% |
| Will CNN fly with Trump by October 31?Ends in 8d | Yes | 20 | 12¢ → 11¢ | $2 | −$0 −8.3% |
| Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by November 30, 2026?Ends in 38d | Yes | 13 | 16¢ → 12¢ | $2 | −$1 −28% |
| Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by March 31, 2027?Ends in 159d | Yes | 2 | 59¢ → 54¢ | $1 | −$0 −8.5% |
| Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 6 | 21¢ → 16¢ | $1 | −$0 −27% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 45 | 36¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 153 | 36¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$56 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 130 | 32¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$41 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 58 | 28¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$17 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 8PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 643 | 20¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$128 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 113 | 29¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$32 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 98 | 43¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$42 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 145 | 33¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$48 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 2PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 22 | 19¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 197 | 33¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$64 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 187 | 32¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$60 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 142 | 40¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$57 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 8AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 23 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 193 | 39¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$76 −100% |
| Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by December 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 183 | 48¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$89 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 92 | 31¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$28 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 9AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 63 | 75¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$47 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 5PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 290 | 16¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$46 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 243 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$33 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 53 | 31¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 128 | 26¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$34 −100% |
