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Polymarket wallet 0xfbe0b817c1c1378563def595838ebcb56c29340d · on Polymarket since Feb 18, 2026 · also shown as Agonizing-Cloth
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 48 | 21¢ → 100¢ | $48 | +$38 +376% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 7 | 76¢ → 100¢ | $7 | +$2 +32% |
| Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 4,000 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Will Austria come in last place at Eurovision 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 15 | 27¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 160d | Will Austria come in last place at Eurovision 2026? | BuyYes27¢ | $4 |
| 160d | Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? | BuyYes<1¢ | $4 |
| 160d | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET | BuyUp76¢ | $5 |
| 246d | Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BuyYes29¢ | $4 |
| 246d | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BuyYes21¢ | $10 |
| 246d | US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? | BuyYes16¢ | $10 |
| 246d | US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | BuyYes18¢ | $10 |
| 246d | US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? | BuyYes18¢ | $13 |
| 247d | US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | BuyYes11¢ | $22 |
| 247d | US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? | SellYes2¢ | $22 |
| 247d | Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February? | BuyYes26¢ | $3 |
| 247d | US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | BuyYes2¢ | $10 |
| 247d | US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | BuyYes5¢ | $10 |
| 247d | US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? | BuyYes1¢ | $10 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 8 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.