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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st hottest | 100% | +4 pts | +15 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 2nd hottest | 0% | −1 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 3rd hottest | 0% | −2 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 4th or lower | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74d |  noreasapa | 1st hottest | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,331 | +$6 +0.4% | 4 |
| 74d | noreasapa | 4th or lower | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,524 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 79d | russell1103208 fills | 1st hottest | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $19,561 | +$5,180 +26% | 4 |
| 88d | russell110320 | 1st hottest | SellYes84¢ → 100¢ | $4,023 | −$792 −20% | — |
| 101d | Danny283847490191 | 1st hottest | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,633 | +$367 +22% | 4 |
AMAM131,006 sharesThis market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 1st hottest means the market gives it about 100%.