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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3+ Bonus HRs | 100% | +46 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 6+ Bonus HRs | 0% | −38 pts | — | 1¢ · 23¢ (22¢) | — | ended |
| 10+ Bonus HRs | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · 50¢ | — | ended |
| 15+ Bonus HRs | 0% | −10 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 102d | NeoOracle2 fills | 6+ Bonus HRs | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,510 | +$31 +0.6% | 4 |
thonka984 shares
richardd471 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the total number of home runs hit on bonus swings during the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only home runs hit on bonus swings are counted. Home runs hit in a swing off or prior to a player’s final allotted swing (i.e. swing 1-19 in the first round and swing 1-14 in remaining rounds) do not count. If the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed rounds. If the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby is cancelled, postponed after July 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the exact total cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 3+ Bonus HRs means the market gives it about 100%.