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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +24 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 563d | zorra | 54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday? | SellYes>99¢ | $4,614 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 563d | voteme2025 | 54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,305 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 563d | 0x1C7Ea49c1B1badD8cdDf6fBD3e2cbCaf7fe3 | 54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,947 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 563d | DontTrustFakeMedia | 54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,049 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 563d | AreWeNotEntertained | 54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday? | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,366 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 563d | Acidic-Safeguard2 fills | 54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday? | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,018 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 563d | Acidic-Safeguard | 54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,402 | −$17 −0.7% | — |
| 563d | OneAHalfshadow | 54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,473 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 563d |  aenews2 | 54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday? | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $2,375 | +$238 +10% | 22 |
| 563d |  0xCarneyAsada | 54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday? | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,760 | +$240 +14% | 23 |
| 563d |  KimJonEn | 54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday? | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,158 | +$104 +9.0% | 22 |
| 563d |  ScamWick2 fills | 54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday? | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $3,530 | +$650 +18% | 24 |
| 563d |  jesterthegoose | 54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday? | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,250 | +$250 +20% | 24 |
| 563d | Folletin | 54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday? | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $3,315 | +$645 +19% | 24 |
| 563d | Gethigher | 54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday? | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $2,184 | +$416 +19% | 24 |
| 563d | zorra | 54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday? | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $2,838 | +$523 +18% | 24 |
| 563d |  MisTKy34 fills | 54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday? | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $5,758 | +$1,189 +21% | 25 |
| 564d |  FadingLight4 fills | 54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday? | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $12,774 | +$4,647 +36% | 24 |
| 564d | DontTrustFakeMedia | 54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday? | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $7,455 | +$3,045 +41% | 28 |
| 564d | cryptocons2 fills | 54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday? | BuyNo44¢ → 0¢ | $3,395 | −$3,395 −100% | 26 |
| 564d |  Sivert3 fills | 54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday? | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $3,939 | +$603 +15% | 22 |
| 566d | goooodboy | 54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday? | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,048 | +$171 +16% | 21 |
| 566d | Lalaf | 54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday? | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$326 +16% | 21 |
On April 2, Donald Trump announced a 54% tariff on all imports from China set to take effect on April 9, 2025, at 12:01 a.m. EDT (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 54% general tariff on imports from China into the United States goes into effect for any amount of time between April 4, 2025, and April 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the 54% tariff, as announced by the Trump administration, must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only the 54% general tariff will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) or specific goods (e.g., autos, steel) will not count toward this market's resolution. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.