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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2B | 2% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | in 435d |
| $2.5B | 2% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (1¢) | — | in 435d |
| $600M | 3% | 0 pts | +2 pts | 2¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | $2.62K | in 435d |
| $400M | 4% | +2 pts | +3 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | $1.87K | in 435d |
| $200M | 2% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $621 | in 435d |
| $800M | 2% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $220 | in 435d |
| $1B | 3% | +1 pts | +1 pts | 2¢ · 4¢ (2¢) | $109 | in 435d |
| $1.5B | 3% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (1¢) | $70.8 | in 435d |
| $3B | 3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (1¢) | $30 | in 435d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d |  XieGuangKun | $800M | SellNo97¢ → 98¢ | $1,124 | −$19 −1.7% | — |
| 13d | XieGuangKun | $600M | SellNo97¢ | $1,073 | +$0 +0.0% | — |
| 15d |  olegs | $3B | SellNo96¢ → 97¢ | $1,409 | −$15 −1.0% | — |
| 16d | zisone3 fills | $200M | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $3,000 | +$58 +1.9% | 3 |
| 16d | olegs | $3B | BuyNo99¢ → 97¢ | $1,449 | −$26 −1.8% | 2 |
| 16d | zisone2 fills | $800M | BuyNo98¢ | $2,000 | +$9 +0.4% | 2 |
| 16d | zisone | $400M | BuyNo98¢ → 96¢ | $1,000 | −$21 −2.1% | 2 |
| 16d | zisone | $1B | BuyNo97¢ | $1,000 | −$1 −0.1% | 2 |
| 16d |  Lord1337 | $1B | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $1,194 | +$28 +2.4% | 3 |
| 170d |  Hyperlong | $3B | BuyNo97¢ | $1,142 | +$0 +0.0% | 2 |
| 177d | Hyperlong2 fills | $600M | BuyNo70¢ → 97¢ | $4,914 | +$1,948 +40% | 7 |
| 185d | tryingmyluckhere | $200M | BuyYes62¢ → 2¢ | $1,289 | −$1,257 −98% | 7 |
| 196d | Hyperlong2 fills | $800M | BuyNo86¢ → 98¢ | $3,649 | +$536 +15% | 4 |
| 203d | Hyperlong2 fills | $400M | BuyNo79¢ → 96¢ | $7,054 | +$1,538 +22% | 6 |
| 223d | Boiling-Brilliant | $200M | SellYes67¢ → 2¢ | $1,005 | +$982 +98% | — |
| 240d | Kaleidoscopic-FigurineNew account | $2.5B | BuyNo98¢ | $1,259 | $0 0.0% | 2 |
| 240d | Common-SustainmentNew account | $2.5B | BuyNo98¢ | $1,264 | −$5 −0.4% | 2 |
| 253d | Rapid-Revascularization | $3B | BuyNo96¢ → 97¢ | $2,506 | +$22 +0.9% | 3 |
| 253d | jiuyaowu | $3B | SellNo96¢ → 97¢ | $1,060 | −$9 −0.9% | — |
| 254d | Suburban-Dial41 fills | $3B | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $59,070 | +$1,317 +2.2% | 3 |
| 254d | asdgreyreyh40 fills | $3B | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $58,044 | +$1,299 +2.2% | 3 |
| 263d | shprota | $3B | BuyNo91¢ → 97¢ | $1,014 | +$70 +6.9% | 4 |
| 265d | hasfafs | $200M | SellYes89¢ → 2¢ | $1,602 | +$1,574 +98% | — |
| 265d | najksfh | $200M | SellYes89¢ → 2¢ | $1,958 | +$1,924 +98% | — |
| 265d | ljksbndef | $200M | SellYes88¢ → 2¢ | $1,232 | +$1,210 +98% | — |
| 265d | jkasfres | $200M | SellYes88¢ → 2¢ | $1,936 | +$1,902 +98% | — |
LornaPredicts386 shares
ThirdEstate343 shares
balthazar101 shares
Methaslegs193 sharesLord1337118 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Abstract's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Abstract doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 2¢ for $2B means the market gives it about 2%.