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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500M | 70% | −1 pts | −3 pts | 69¢ · 70¢ (1¢) | — | in 435d |
| $20B | 1% | — | — | <1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | in 435d |
| $10B | 6% | 0 pts | +2 pts | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | — | in 435d |
| $3B | 44% | +1 pts | −1 pts | 39¢ · 49¢ (10¢) | $320 | in 435d |
| $5B | 19% | +2 pts | −1 pts | 17¢ · 21¢ (4¢) | $313 | in 435d |
| $800M | 70% | −1 pts | +4 pts | 68¢ · 71¢ (3¢) | $290 | in 435d |
| $7B | 18% | +6 pts | +3 pts | 11¢ · 25¢ (14¢) | $255 | in 435d |
| $2B | 56% | +3 pts | −1 pts | 53¢ · 59¢ (6¢) | $234 | in 435d |
| $4B | 34% | −5 pts | −2 pts | 33¢ · 34¢ (1¢) | $167 | in 435d |
| $1B | 64% | — | −1 pts | 62¢ · 66¢ (4¢) | $125 | in 435d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62d | dramp3 | $500M | SellYes54¢ → 70¢ | $1,078 | −$312 −29% | — |
| 121d | hitjnn214 | $500M | BuyYes76¢ → 70¢ | $1,335 | −$107 −8.0% | 2 |
| 148d | rekt-prediction | $800M | BuyYes75¢ → 70¢ | $1,877 | −$140 −7.5% | 6 |
LornaPredicts706 shares
VibeyQuant529 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Arc's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Arc (https://x.com/arc) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 70¢ for $500M means the market gives it about 70%.
