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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labor 40+ | 100% | 0 pts | +99 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Labor 30–39 | 0% | 0 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Labor 20–29 | 0% | 0 pts | −27 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Labor 10–19 | 0% | 0 pts | −26 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Labor 1–9 | 0% | −8 pts | −24 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Coalition 0–9 (Tie) | 0% | −3 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Coalition 10–19 | 0% | −1 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Coalition 20–29 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Coalition 30+ | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Other | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 536d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Labor 30–39 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 10 |
| 537d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Labor 40+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,174 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 538d | Thin-Print | Labor 10–19 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,098 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 538d | SweetChariot | Labor 40+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,000 | +$2 +0.2% | 10 |
| 539d |  Nostdam | Labor 20–29 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,023 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 539d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA2 fills | Labor 40+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,245 | +$26 +0.2% | 10 |
| 539d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | Labor 20–29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,997 | +$2 +0.1% | 10 |
| 539d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | Coalition 0–9 (Tie) | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,426 | +$2 +0.1% | 10 |
| 539d |  nicoco89 | Labor 40+ | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,616 | +$52 +3.2% | 10 |
| 539d |  LEONIDOVITCH1983 | Labor 20–29 | BuyNo73¢ → 100¢ | $1,464 | +$542 +37% | 19 |
| 539d |  mantou11 | Labor 1–9 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,511 | +$226 +15% | 14 |
| 539d | wubddh | Coalition 0–9 (Tie) | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,214 | +$36 +1.1% | 10 |
| 539d | Thin-Print | Labor 1–9 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,428 | +$206 +8.5% | 12 |
| 539d | AZwater | Coalition 30+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,660 | +$5 +0.3% | 10 |
The 2025 Australian federal election will be held on Saturday 3 May 2025 to elect members of the 48th Parliament of Australia. This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled in the Australian House of Representatives between the first and second place parties as a result of the next Australian general election (e.g. Labour control 80, Coalition controls 50, difference = 30). If neither the Labour party nor the Coalition win the most seats, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Australian government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Labor 40+ means the market gives it about 100%.