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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jude Bellingham | 31% | −3 pts | −3 pts | 29¢ · 33¢ (4¢) | $3.26K | in 69d |
| Vitinha | 8% | −5 pts | +4 pts | 7¢ · 9¢ (2¢) | $3.17K | in 69d |
| João Neves | 2% | — | — | 1¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Fabian Ruiz | 77% | +7 pts | +4 pts | 76¢ · 77¢ (1¢) | $2.68K | in 69d |
| Pau Cubarsi | 16% | +4 pts | −12 pts | 15¢ · 17¢ (2¢) | $1.43K | in 69d |
| Lautaro Martinez | 1% | 0 pts | −2 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Vinícius Júnior | 2% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 4¢ (3¢) | — | in 69d |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 98% | +1 pts | +4 pts | 97¢ · 99¢ (2¢) | $966 | in 69d |
| Gabriel Magalhães | 1% | — | −1 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Lionel Messi | 99% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 99¢ · >99¢ (1¢) | $815 | in 69d |
| Lamine Yamal | >99% | — | 0 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | $729 | in 69d |
| Julián Quiñones | 1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Declan Rice | 12% | −2 pts | −8 pts | 11¢ · 12¢ (1¢) | $622 | in 69d |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 94% | +3 pts | +12 pts | 93¢ · 95¢ (2¢) | $572 | in 69d |
| Erling Haaland | 77% | −9 pts | +2 pts | 76¢ · 78¢ (2¢) | $537 | in 69d |
| Rodri | 99% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 98¢ · >99¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Harry Kane | >99% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 100¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | $396 | in 69d |
| Achraf Hakimi | 2% | −2 pts | −2 pts | 1¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | $247 | in 69d |
| Michael Olise | 96% | +7 pts | +10 pts | 94¢ · 97¢ (3¢) | $215 | in 69d |
| Marquinhos | 1% | — | −1 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Luis Diaz | 3% | +1 pts | −2 pts | 1¢ · 5¢ (4¢) | $151 | in 69d |
| William Saliba | 3% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 2¢ · 5¢ (3¢) | $50 | in 69d |
| Marc Cucurella | 3% | −1 pts | −2 pts | 1¢ · 4¢ (3¢) | $46.1 | in 69d |
| Dayot Upamecano | 1% | — | −1 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Bruno Fernandes | 2% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 1¢ · 4¢ (3¢) | $30 | in 69d |
| Nuno Mendes | 3% | 0 pts | −4 pts | 1¢ · 4¢ (3¢) | $20 | in 69d |
| Willian Pacho | 3% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 4¢ (3¢) | $20 | in 69d |
| Ferran Torres | 2% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 4¢ (3¢) | $20 | in 69d |
| Sadio Mané | 1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Kylian Mbappé | 100% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | $5 | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d | Chonchitoooo2 fills | Nuno Mendes | BuyNo93¢ → 97¢ | $2,462 | +$102 +4.1% | 8 |
| 10d | Chonchitoooo | Nuno Mendes | SellNo92¢ → 97¢ | $1,399 | −$76 −5.4% | — |
TimeTraveler1,052 shares
JosephIsGreat437 shares
DerDon2,540 shares
Cypya2,407 shares
Cypyi2,240 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 10 of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If more than 10 players tie for the top 10 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's official top 10 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final ten places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 31¢ for Jude Bellingham means the market gives it about 31%.