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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé | 7% | −10 pts | −6 pts | 6¢ · 7¢ (1¢) | $7.27K | in 69d |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 25% | −4 pts | +3 pts | 24¢ · 25¢ (1¢) | $3.77K | in 69d |
| Rodri | 81% | +5 pts | +3 pts | 80¢ · 81¢ (1¢) | $2.76K | in 69d |
| Erling Haaland | 3% | −2 pts | −5 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $1.93K | in 69d |
| Lionel Messi | 76% | +5 pts | +5 pts | 75¢ · 76¢ (1¢) | $1.69K | in 69d |
| Michael Olise | 19% | −11 pts | −8 pts | 18¢ · 19¢ (1¢) | $1.12K | in 69d |
| Declan Rice | 1% | −1 pts | −2 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $747 | in 69d |
| Fabian Ruiz | 9% | −1 pts | −3 pts | 8¢ · 9¢ (1¢) | $604 | in 69d |
| Kylian Mbappé | 97% | −1 pts | +2 pts | 96¢ · 98¢ (1¢) | $218 | in 69d |
| Jude Bellingham | 1% | −3 pts | −3 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | $182 | in 69d |
| Lamine Yamal | 98% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 98¢ · 98¢ (<1¢) | $171 | in 69d |
| Pau Cubarsi | 1% | −2 pts | −3 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $159 | in 69d |
| Vitinha | 1% | 0 pts | −3 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $159 | in 69d |
| Harry Kane | 99% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 99¢ · 99¢ (<1¢) | $157 | in 69d |
| Vinícius Júnior | <1% | 0 pts | −1 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $149 | in 69d |
| Achraf Hakimi | 1% | −1 pts | −2 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | $149 | in 69d |
| Bruno Fernandes | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $149 | in 69d |
| Luis Diaz | 1% | 0 pts | −1 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | $149 | in 69d |
| Lautaro Martinez | 1% | 0 pts | −1 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | $149 | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | V1nch0u2 fills | Ousmane Dembélé | BuyNo92¢ → 94¢ | $4,224 | +$90 +2.1% | 10 |
| 2d |  sciuboi | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | SellNo67¢ → 76¢ | $1,434 | −$179 −12% | — |
| 4d | Nisbouse | Ousmane Dembélé | BuyYes23¢ → 7¢ | $1,000 | −$714 −71% | 15 |
| 10d | Chonchitoooo2 fills | Vitinha | SellNo95¢ → 99¢ | $2,496 | −$84 −3.4% | — |
| 10d | Chonchitoooo | Achraf Hakimi | SellNo96¢ → 99¢ | $1,814 | −$53 −2.9% | — |
| 14d |  cryptojo | Pau Cubarsi | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,501 | +$54 +2.2% | 6 |
| 14d | cryptojo | Vitinha | BuyNo96¢ → 99¢ | $1,048 | +$27 +2.6% | 7 |
| 14d | cryptojo | Achraf Hakimi | BuyNo96¢ → 99¢ | $1,599 | +$45 +2.8% | 7 |
| 17d |  Parz1vaI | Vitinha | BuyNo95¢ → 99¢ | $1,554 | +$55 +3.5% | 7 |
| 22d |  cubsy | Achraf Hakimi | BuyNo95¢ → 99¢ | $1,065 | +$40 +3.7% | 7 |
| 22d | Chonchitoooo3 fills | Vitinha | BuyNo94¢ → 99¢ | $3,176 | +$147 +4.6% | 8 |
| 23d | 0x3315…db2a | Ousmane Dembélé | BuyNo71¢ → 94¢ | $1,316 | +$417 +32% | 18 |
| 23d | Calm-Ikebana | Kylian Mbappé | BuyYes88¢ → 97¢ | $2,560 | +$259 +10% | 12 |
| 25d | thoodr | Lamine Yamal | BuyYes96¢ → 98¢ | $1,462 | +$26 +1.8% | 6 |
| 26d | Chonchitoooo | Declan Rice | BuyNo96¢ → 99¢ | $1,017 | +$30 +3.0% | 7 |
| 31d | sciuboi | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | BuyNo51¢ → 76¢ | $1,047 | +$491 +47% | 24 |
| 35d | Akayus | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | BuyNo51¢ → 76¢ | $1,075 | +$520 +48% | 24 |
| 36d | KjerstinDellert | Lionel Messi | BuyYes40¢ → 76¢ | $1,000 | +$888 +89% | 24 |
TimeTraveler3,151 shares
crypto-basenji1,197 shares
1922500 shares
Luck7.7.71,441 shares
Cypya678 shares
macrosteaks335 sharesThis market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 5 of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve "No." If more than 5 players tie for the top 5 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official top 5 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final five places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 7¢ for Ousmane Dembélé means the market gives it about 7%.