Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28–29% | 100% | −1 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| <26% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 26–27% | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 27–28% | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| >29% | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 314d | FlyingPlaty | 28–29% | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,656 | +$4 +0.1% | 10 |
| 314d | FlyingPlaty2 fills | >29% | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,276 | +$10 +0.1% | 10 |
| 324d |  DonaldinhoTrumpito2 fills | 28–29% | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $12,219 | +$4,156 +34% | 10 |
| 326d | randomlypunting | 28–29% | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,833 | −$120 −6.5% | — |
| 341d | kcnyekchno3 fills | 28–29% | BuyYes55¢ → 100¢ | $7,657 | +$6,208 +81% | 10 |
| 343d | kcnyekchno | 28–29% | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,181 | −$49 −4.2% | — |
| 343d | randomlypunting | 28–29% | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,900 | +$53 +2.8% | 10 |
| 344d |  babushka29 | 28–29% | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$109 +7.3% | 10 |
| 344d | influenz.eth | 26–27% | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,036 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 344d | influenz.eth | 27–28% | BuyNo100¢ | $1,032 | +$5 +0.5% | 10 |
| 344d | influenz.eth | <26% | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,036 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 345d | DonaldinhoTrumpito2 fills | >29% | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $17,589 | +$7,575 +43% | 10 |
| 345d | kcnyekchno | >29% | BuyNo39¢ → 100¢ | $1,524 | +$2,386 +157% | 11 |
| 345d |  TeemuPukki | >29% | SellYes62¢ → 0¢ | $1,582 | +$1,582 +100% | — |
| 346d | TeemuPukki | >29% | BuyYes66¢ → 0¢ | $2,095 | −$2,095 −100% | 10 |
| 346d |  Snoopyfan | 28–29% | SellYes72¢ → 100¢ | $1,781 | −$693 −39% | — |
| 347d | oknhdx2yxqmk | <26% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,506 | +$32 +0.9% | 10 |
| 347d | qvqfliqatgod | <26% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,508 | +$32 +0.9% | 10 |
| 347d | peejqboltpv7 | 26–27% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,501 | +$21 +0.6% | 10 |
| 347d | rqwnccgs1qwt | 26–27% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,501 | +$21 +0.6% | 10 |
| 347d | umhflzepckdla | <26% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,530 | +$36 +1.0% | 10 |
| 347d | opfqr7eadosns | <26% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,519 | +$36 +1.0% | 10 |
| 347d | fompd2nqgks0s | <26% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,518 | +$39 +1.1% | 10 |
| 347d | nrodx916yrrds | <26% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,525 | +$39 +1.1% | 10 |
| 348d | klnaiz4ckqiq | <26% | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,515 | +$14 +0.4% | 10 |
| 348d | ahfwb07h1f0w | <26% | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,506 | +$14 +0.4% | 10 |
zxcursed12134 sharesProposition 50 is a 2025 legislatively referred constitutional amendment on congressional redistricting, proposed for the statewide special election in California currently set for November 4, 2025. This market will resolve according to the margin by which Proposition 50 is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide special election currently set for November 4, 2025. For the purpose of resolving this market, the “margin” is defined as the absolute percentage-point difference between the certified statewide vote share in favor (“pro”) minus the certified statewide vote share against (“contra”) the proposition. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If Proposition 50 does not receive more pro than contra votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the State of California.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 28–29% means the market gives it about 100%.