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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 100% | +66 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 15 | 100% | +20 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 31 | 100% | +4 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 30 | 100% | +6 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 142d | 0x8599639b8b0acd705ce34232c1651298d7c568eb | May 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,088 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 142d |  HowToBasic | July 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,022 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 142d | RIC25 | May 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,456 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 142d | Disastrous-VanityNew account | May 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,272 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 142d | tf2 | May 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,597 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 142d |  Gleaming-Pear4 fills | May 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $46,858 | +$69 +0.1% | 20 |
| 142d | 0x2585e7022dc2075a108204bIxc08cea8d13b60a2 fills | May 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,410 | +$23 +0.2% | 20 |
| 142d |  krazyagain | May 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,970 | +$30 +0.3% | 20 |
| 142d | Gleaming-Pear2 fills | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,474 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 142d | Gleaming-Pear2 fills | July 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $21,406 | +$112 +0.5% | 20 |
| 142d | Gleaming-Pear | June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,097 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 142d |  tourists9 fills | May 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $34,647 | +$1,856 +5.4% | 20 |
| 142d | gunnar2422 fills | June 15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,030 | +$96 +1.1% | 20 |
| 142d | gunnar242 | June 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,853 | +$70 +1.0% | 20 |
| 142d | HelloKitty333 | May 31 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,693 | +$194 +11% | 20 |
| 142d |  richsmith | May 31 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,593 | +$239 +15% | 20 |
| 142d | BrownBees | May 31 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,750 | +$323 +18% | 20 |
| 142d |  PredictionPuppy | May 31 | SellYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,669 | −$286 −17% | — |
| 142d | Shameful-PackagingNew account | May 31 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,190 | +$137 +11% | 25 |
| 142d |  cookiejar2 fills | May 31 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $5,421 | +$670 +12% | 20 |
| 142d | 0x8599639b8b0acd705ce34232c1651298d7c568eb | May 31 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,797 | +$297 +17% | 20 |
| 143d |  WarriorPooh | May 31 | BuyNo34¢ → 0¢ | $1,634 | −$1,634 −100% | 22 |
| 143d |  The-Joker | May 31 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,970 | +$657 +33% | 20 |
| 143d | RIC25 | May 31 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,498 | +$502 +34% | 20 |
| 143d | tourists | June 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,645 | +$34 +2.1% | 20 |
| 143d | oceanmist79 | May 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,151 | +$113 +5.3% | 20 |
| 143d |  Da-Joker | June 15 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,126 | +$38 +3.4% | 20 |
| 143d | The-Joker | July 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,895 | +$40 +2.1% | 20 |
| 143d | betguy17182 fills | May 31 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $21,555 | +$3,546 +16% | 20 |
| 143d | bimbumbap22 | May 31 | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,447 | +$621 +43% | 20 |
| 143d | sebwalk | May 31 | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$747 +50% | 20 |
Vovovovovovovo26,594 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic makes any Claude 4.8 model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude 4.8 refers to a product explicitly named Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.8, or any other variant that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4.7, similar to the progression from Claude 4.2 to Claude 4.3. (e.g., Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.8, 4.9, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation, such as Claude 5 or similar, will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for May 31 means the market gives it about 100%.