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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 100% | +1 pts | +1 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 50+ bps decrease | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 25 bps decrease | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Increase | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 176d | SplendidAmadeus2 fills | No change | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,746 | −$54 −1.4% | — |
| 176d |  Gemini456 | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,452 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 176d |  noreasapa | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,835 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 176d | QMG-CORE | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,496 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 176d |  MrBobo | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,310 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 176d |  taut-dogwood | Increase | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,128 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 178d | SplendidAmadeus3 fills | No change | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,967 | +$147 +3.0% | 20 |
| 178d | lordedward3 fills | No change | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,983 | +$117 +2.4% | 20 |
| 179d | influenz.eth3 fills | Increase | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,813 | +$164 +3.4% | 20 |
| 179d | Gemini4562 fills | No change | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,394 | +$129 +3.8% | 20 |
| 179d | nicdan | No change | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,084 | +$31 +2.8% | 20 |
| 184d | Moonshot1019 | No change | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,960 | −$109 −2.7% | — |
| 184d | Moonshot1019 | No change | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,988 | +$81 +2.0% | 20 |
| 185d | quantitative_ramen - 24288 | No change | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,275 | +$73 +1.7% | 20 |
| 189d |  Occidentaliste | No change | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,164 | −$29 −2.5% | — |
| 192d | MoonLambo12054 fills | No change | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $12,956 | +$1,132 +8.7% | 20 |
| 194d | Gemini456 | No change | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,906 | −$284 −15% | — |
| 194d | Pepe12345672 fills | No change | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $3,977 | −$522 −13% | — |
| 194d |  SaracensCapital2 | No change | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,036 | −$101 −9.8% | — |
| 194d | 0x765f…1508 | No change | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,325 | −$113 −8.5% | — |
| 194d | firegold | No change | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,086 | +$90 +8.3% | 20 |
| 198d | texarkanahussy | No change | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,099 | +$199 +18% | 20 |
| 214d |  perfectnostalgia | Increase | BuyYes82¢ → 0¢ | $1,737 | −$1,737 −100% | 20 |
giovannivignocchi14 sharesThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for No change means the market gives it about 100%.