perfectnostalgia

Polymarket wallet 0x0ffcad4963e25dc150774363f4061ebe840c8236 · on Polymarket since Mar 24, 2024 · also shown as Defensive-Plunger

Open on Polymarket ↗

a humble forecaster with much to be humble about

Positions now worth: $92.9K
All-time profit: +$150K
Volume traded: $3.79M
All-time rank: #1,341
Markets traded: 847
Recent hit rate: 44%22 of last 50 closed

Open positions

41 markets · $92.9K

Market	Holding		Paid → now
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 6d	Yes	43,542	87¢ → 98¢	$42,759	+$4,834 +13%
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?Ends in 69d	No	13,359	65¢ → 86¢	$11,422	+$2,792 +32%
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Ends in 12d	Yes	7,624	62¢ → 97¢	$7,387	+$2,638 +56%
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?Ends in 69d	Yes	5,358	73¢ → 99¢	$5,301	+$1,388 +35%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 11d	Yes	5,000	91¢ → 93¢	$4,625	+$75 +1.6%
Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?Ends in 100d	Yes	4,085	61¢ → 79¢	$3,227	+$755 +31%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 5d	Yes	3,500	87¢ → 92¢	$3,203	+$158 +5.2%
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?Ends in 69d	No	2,513	85¢ → 97¢	$2,429	+$288 +13%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 177d	Yes	4,902	27¢ → 46¢	$2,265	+$917 +68%
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?Ends in 11d	Yes	2,373	53¢ → 66¢	$1,565	+$296 +23%
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Ends in 68d	Yes	1,493	23¢ → 71¢	$1,052	+$708 +206%
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d	Yes	1,500	60¢ → 70¢	$1,043	+$143 +16%
ECB rate cut in 2026?Ends in 69d	No	906	88¢ → 96¢	$865	+$68 +8.5%
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?Ends in 4d	Yes	1,000	34¢ → 80¢	$801	+$461 +136%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?Ends in 69d	No	705	67¢ → 92¢	$645	+$170 +36%
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?Ends in 11d	Yes	1,885	76¢ → 32¢	$603	−$825 −58%
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 177d	Yes	87,801	<1¢ → 1¢	$483	+$197 +69%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?Ends in 6d	No	1,326	59¢ → 35¢	$457	−$319 −41%
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?Ends in 46d	Yes	1,062	34¢ → 42¢	$441	+$77 +21%
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Ends in 68d	Yes	4,586	20¢ → 7¢	$342	−$583 −63%
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.0% and 3.4%?Ends in 89d	No	489	78¢ → 67¢	$325	−$55 −14%
Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?Ends in 100d	Yes	1,538	34¢ → 18¢	$269	−$258 −49%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d	Yes	385	64¢ → 67¢	$256	+$10 +3.9%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?Ends in 12d	Yes	8,350	68¢ → 3¢	$213	−$5,500 −96%
Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October?Ends in 14d	Yes	490	28¢ → 32¢	$157	+$21 +16%
Will the Democrats win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 10d	Yes	177	88¢ → 85¢	$150	−$5 −3.2%
Will JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.4M in September?Ends in 10d	Yes	581	18¢ → 21¢	$119	+$17 +17%
Will the US lose more than 25k jobs in October?Ends in 14d	No	121	91¢ → 96¢	$116	+$6 +5.6%
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?Ends in 13d	Yes	330	28¢ → 28¢	$94	+$2 +2.0%
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be at least 4.5%?Ends in 89d	No	79	67¢ → 97¢	$76	+$24 +45%
Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in October?Ends in 14d	No	82	85¢ → 78¢	$64	−$5 −7.8%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 177d	Yes	19,460	1¢ → <1¢	$49	−$87 −64%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Ends in 46d	Yes	52	9¢ → 73¢	$38	+$33 +706%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 177d	Yes	1,500	5¢ → 2¢	$31	−$46 −60%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?Ends in 6d	Yes	272	20¢ → 9¢	$23	−$32 −58%
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?Ends in 13d	Yes	420	9¢ → 5¢	$22	−$15 −40%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?Ends in 6d	Yes	45	11¢ → 14¢	$6	+$1 +23%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 177d	Yes	1,000	<1¢ → <1¢	$5	+$1 +13%
Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Ends in 68d	Yes	1,725	1¢ → <1¢	$4	−$15 −78%
Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in October?Ends in 14d	Yes	8	10¢ → 14¢	$1	+$0 +45%
Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in October?Ends in 14d	Yes	4	12¢ → 13¢	$0	+$0 +4.2%

Latest trades

last 60

When	Market	Bet	Size
7h	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	BuyYes27¢	$3
14h	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	BuyYes27¢	$0
1d	Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in October?	BuyYes10¢	$1
1d	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	BuyYes87¢	$3,045
1d	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	SellYes73¢	$364
1d	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	BuyYes53¢	$1,269
2d	Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?	BuyYes71¢	$14
2d	Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?	BuyYes71¢	$993
2d	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	BuyYes27¢	$0
2d	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	BuyYes27¢	$1
3d	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	BuyYes27¢	$1
4d	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	SellNo40¢	$20
4d	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	SellNo40¢	$8
4d	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	SellNo40¢	$10
4d	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	SellNo40¢	$52
4d	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	SellNo40¢	$8
4d	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	SellNo40¢	$8
4d	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	SellNo40¢	$8
7d	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	SellYes92¢	$5
7d	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	SellYes92¢	$316
7d	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	SellYes1¢	$50
8d	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	BuyYes90¢	$46
8d	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	BuyYes90¢	$257
8d	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	BuyYes90¢	$417
8d	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	SellNo41¢	$69
9d	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	SellYes85¢	$3,726
9d	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	BuyYes91¢	$27
9d	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	BuyYes91¢	$321
9d	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	BuyYes91¢	$546
9d	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	BuyYes91¢	$9
9d	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?	BuyYes9¢	$0
9d	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	BuyYes91¢	$91
9d	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	BuyYes76¢	$1,714
9d	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	SellYes1¢	$183
9d	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	BuyYes91¢	$628
9d	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	BuyYes32¢	$33
9d	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	BuyYes32¢	$33
9d	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?	BuyYes54¢	$83
9d	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	BuyYes40¢	$62
9d	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?	BuyYes54¢	$55
9d	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	BuyYes34¢	$105
9d	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	BuyYes40¢	$265
9d	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	BuyYes42¢	$21
9d	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	BuyYes42¢	$23
9d	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	BuyYes42¢	$28
9d	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	BuyYes42¢	$3
9d	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	BuyYes42¢	$21
9d	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	BuyYes32¢	$9
9d	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	BuyYes33¢	$29
9d	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	BuyYes33¢	$13
9d	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	BuyYes32¢	$9
9d	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	BuyYes32¢	$3
9d	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	BuyYes33¢	$17
9d	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	BuyYes33¢	$7
9d	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	BuyYes33¢	$3
9d	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	BuyYes33¢	$3
9d	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	BuyYes33¢	$16
9d	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	BuyYes33¢	$4
9d	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	BuyYes33¢	$10
9d	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	BuyYes33¢	$10

Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 50 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.

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