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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 300-319 | 100% | +46 pts | +93 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −1 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −1 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −6 pts | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −19 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −22 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | −6 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 189d | niceShare | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,515 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 189d | Timely-Granola | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,535 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 189d |  Gabbers | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,055 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 189d |  Zenef | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,144 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 189d | bipbipbop | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,529 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 189d | bipbipbop | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,817 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 189d | 1647171 | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,345 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 189d | Enchanted-Uniform | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,576 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 189d | justnotchu | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,260 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 189d | changc3 | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,737 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 189d | distroaa | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,249 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 189d | Abd1011 | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,168 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 189d |  hidden-james | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,500 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 189d | adpo | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $15,402 | −$15 −0.1% | — |
| 189d | Icannotwin | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,500 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 189d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 189d | French-Saint | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,923 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 189d |  Annica3 fills | 300-319 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $19,229 | +$156 +0.8% | 20 |
| 189d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 300-319 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,990 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 189d | ylnopU | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,549 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 189d |  Prexpect2 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,315 | +$20 +0.3% | 20 |
| 189d | geraldhew89 | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,050 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 189d | liq2 | 300-319 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,096 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 189d | carboyant2 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,313 | +$19 +0.5% | 20 |
| 189d | xaeroqkAtProtonMe | 320-339 | SellNo100¢ | $1,462 | −$7 −0.5% | — |
| 189d |  Gustav4 | 320-339 | BuyNo100¢ | $6,301 | +$32 +0.5% | 20 |
| 189d | vezunchik | 320-339 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,010 | −$16 −1.6% | — |
| 189d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 320-339 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,455 | +$19 +1.3% | 20 |
| 189d | Dense-Muscat | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,227 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 189d | Prexpect | 300-319 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,439 | +$29 +2.0% | 21 |
| 190d | Dswang2 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $5,486 | +$466 +8.5% | 23 |
| 190d | ylnopU | 320-339 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,495 | +$54 +3.6% | 21 |
| 190d | AlexPro2 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $3,680 | +$363 +9.9% | 23 |
| 190d | PredictionYogi | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,450 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 190d | Half-Toe | 320-339 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $7,714 | +$272 +3.5% | 21 |
| 190d | changc3 | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,736 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 190d | French-Saint | 300-319 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $7,496 | +$412 +5.5% | 22 |
| 190d | onekey09 | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,350 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 190d |  Boss7 | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,417 | +$37 +0.2% | 20 |
| 190d | Repulsive-Hit | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,241 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 190d | carboyant | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,755 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 190d |  upont | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,567 | +$22 +0.4% | 20 |
| 190d | besmart2025 | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,255 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 190d |  TukiAdo | 300-319 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $6,328 | +$728 +12% | 23 |
| 190d | 0x9ffe…41d0 | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,944 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | geraldhew89 | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,541 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 190d | WCWS | 300-319 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,304 | +$178 +14% | 24 |
| 190d | Wild-Manner | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,520 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 190d | WCWS | 340-359 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,769 | +$13 +0.7% | 20 |
| 190d | Boss75 fills | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,599 | +$53 +0.4% | 20 |
| 190d |  tupac8 | 300-319 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $2,062 | +$453 +22% | 26 |
| 190d | Dswang4 fills | 340-359 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,064 | +$141 +1.6% | 21 |
| 190d |  axelverse.sol | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | Numberju | 460-479 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,102 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | Papuasus | 320-339 | SellYes20¢ → 0¢ | $1,187 | +$1,187 +100% | — |
| 190d | 1647171 | 320-339 | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $3,966 | +$1,317 +33% | 28 |
| 190d | 1647171 | 340-359 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,075 | −$162 −4.0% | — |
| 190d | forestk | 340-359 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,133 | +$224 +2.5% | 21 |
| 190d |  onchainbuda | 360-379 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,589 | +$10 +0.6% | 20 |
| 190d | xaeroqkAtProtonMe | 320-339 | BuyNo76¢ → 100¢ | $1,107 | +$345 +31% | 26 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 10 12:00 PM ET to April 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 300-319 means the market gives it about 100%.