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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 115-139 | 100% | +58 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −35 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −51 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −13 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 193d | dudukos | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,929 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 193d | cryptoverse | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,023 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 193d | 1647171 | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,009 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 194d | WCWS | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 194d |  diligentjoe | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,296 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 194d | Repulsive-Hit | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,032 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 194d | Dense-Muscat | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,521 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 194d | 0x9429…c151 | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,310 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 194d | 0x9429…c151 | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,376 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 194d | OstapP | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,329 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 194d |  Annica | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 194d | Wuk0ng | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,835 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 194d | Cavernous-Undershirt | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,526 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 194d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,512 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 194d | zwxokx2 | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,984 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 194d | onekey09 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,320 | +$21 +0.2% | 20 |
| 194d | OstapP | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,492 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 194d | Pungent-Almanac | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,990 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 194d | Annica2 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes61¢ → 100¢ | $3,979 | +$2,534 +64% | 28 |
| 194d | gfdgdfgffs10 | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,911 | +$24 +1.2% | 20 |
| 194d | forestk | 140-164 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $8,972 | +$149 +1.7% | 21 |
| 194d | yolol | 140-164 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $9,969 | +$314 +3.1% | 21 |
| 194d | Dense-Muscat | 140-164 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,330 | +$185 +5.6% | 22 |
| 194d | Dense-Muscat | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,348 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 194d | yip88 | 140-164 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,102 | +$142 +13% | 24 |
| 194d | yip88 | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,115 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 194d |  Deepwinner888 | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,996 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 194d | deyi9624512 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,819 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 194d |  HeveanlyEmma | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,045 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 194d | forestk | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,988 | −$18 −0.2% | — |
| 194d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,980 | +$18 +0.2% | 20 |
| 194d | Collion | 115-139 | SellNo16¢ → 0¢ | $1,912 | +$1,912 +100% | — |
| 194d | Medical-Universe3 fills | 140-164 | SellYes26¢ → 0¢ | $4,396 | +$4,396 +100% | — |
| 194d | Wuk0ng | 115-139 | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $1,939 | +$854 +44% | 30 |
| 194d | Slushy-TussleNew account | 115-139 | SellYes63¢ → 100¢ | $1,507 | −$890 −59% | — |
| 194d | BinaryBaron3 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $12,890 | +$194 +1.5% | 20 |
| 194d |  tupac83 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes56¢ → 100¢ | $5,412 | +$4,319 +80% | 28 |
| 194d | yip88 | 165-189 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,105 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 194d | yip88 | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,106 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 194d | yolol | 165-189 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $24,677 | +$210 +0.9% | 20 |
| 194d | WCWS | 165-189 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,552 | +$31 +1.2% | 20 |
| 194d |  upont | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $24,753 | −$25 −0.1% | — |
| 194d | upont | 165-189 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,722 | +$32 +1.8% | 21 |
| 194d | Repulsive-Hit | 165-189 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,013 | +$19 +1.9% | 21 |
| 194d | 0x9429…c1512 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo75¢ → 0¢ | $2,477 | −$2,477 −100% | 27 |
| 194d |  TukiAdo | 115-139 | BuyYes41¢ → 100¢ | $1,312 | +$1,910 +146% | 30 |
| 194d |  guandaBaoFu | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,115 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 194d | nnhu63 | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,536 | +$21 +0.2% | 20 |
| 194d | Actual-Ladle | 165-189 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,220 | +$37 +1.7% | 21 |
| 194d | forestk | 165-189 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $8,656 | +$333 +3.9% | 21 |
| 194d | upont | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,967 | +$30 +0.3% | 20 |
| 194d | xaeroqkAtProtonMe | 115-139 | SellNo71¢ → 0¢ | $1,456 | +$1,456 +100% | — |
| 194d | soragambling | 165-189 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,372 | +$90 +6.5% | 22 |
| 194d | 0x9429…c151 | 140-164 | BuyYes66¢ → 0¢ | $1,337 | −$1,337 −100% | 28 |
| 194d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 215-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,990 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 194d | Antaaa79 | 190-214 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,206 | +$9 +0.7% | 20 |
| 194d | elysiian | 190-214 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,248 | +$72 +0.7% | 20 |
| 194d | PredictionYogi | 165-189 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,727 | +$227 +13% | 23 |
| 194d | 1647171 | 140-164 | BuyNo57¢ → 100¢ | $3,332 | +$2,550 +77% | 28 |
| 194d | elysiian | 215-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,397 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
nimikm5,819 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 11 12:00 PM ET to April 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 115-139 means the market gives it about 100%.