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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65-89 | 100% | +85 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −10 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −58 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 181d | MelH | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,299 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 181d | Wild-Manner | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,367 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 181d |  TukiAdo | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,418 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 181d |  Mei-ji | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 181d | Dense-Muscat | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,185 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 181d | tinayaren | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,399 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 181d | onekey09 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $30,693 | +$31 +0.1% | 20 |
| 181d |  Prexpect2 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,713 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 181d | Outrageous-Butter | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,373 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 181d | Dswang2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,216 | +$85 +2.0% | 21 |
| 181d | BinaryBaron3 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,730 | +$52 +0.7% | 20 |
| 181d |  520111 | 65-89 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,973 | +$12 +0.6% | 20 |
| 181d | WCWS | 65-89 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,433 | +$16 +1.1% | 20 |
| 181d | nomalmaker | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,448 | +$35 +2.4% | 21 |
| 182d | TukiAdo | 65-89 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,385 | +$33 +2.4% | 21 |
| 182d | Repulsive-Hit | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,431 | +$36 +2.5% | 21 |
| 182d | Outrageous-Butter2 fills | 90-114 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,780 | −$192 −6.9% | — |
| 182d | mundaletraci400 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,898 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 182d | Dense-Muscat | 90-114 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,982 | +$196 +6.6% | 22 |
| 182d |  PredictionYogi5 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,252 | +$31 +0.2% | 20 |
| 182d | Guray2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,263 | +$155 +3.6% | 21 |
| 182d | Tagan1 | 65-89 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,490 | +$100 +4.0% | 21 |
| 182d | xxtgsy | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,445 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 182d |  upont | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,046 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 182d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,989 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 182d |  LOL525 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 182d | upont4 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,367 | +$56 +0.3% | 20 |
| 182d | upont | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,765 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 182d | daozhu123 | 40-64 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,531 | −$15 −1.0% | — |
| 182d | pupupuup | 40-64 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,560 | +$32 +2.0% | 21 |
| 182d | upont | 40-64 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,031 | +$155 +15% | 24 |
| 182d |  jesterthegoose3 fills | 40-64 | BuyNo21¢ → 100¢ | $3,268 | +$12,656 +387% | 37 |
| 182d |  Archeroon | 40-64 | SellNo55¢ → 100¢ | $1,819 | −$1,460 −80% | — |
| 182d | Archeroon | 65-89 | SellYes55¢ → 100¢ | $1,478 | −$1,221 −83% | — |
| 182d | Wild-Manner | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,865 | +$29 +1.0% | 20 |
| 182d | jesterthegoose | 65-89 | BuyNo81¢ → 0¢ | $1,782 | −$1,782 −100% | 26 |
| 182d |  y111m11 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,882 | +$19 +1.0% | 20 |
| 182d | dudukos | 40-64 | SellYes77¢ → 0¢ | $1,026 | +$1,026 +100% | — |
| 182d |  Boss7 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,507 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 182d | dodca | 40-64 | BuyYes91¢ → 0¢ | $1,178 | −$1,178 −100% | 23 |
| 182d | upont | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,093 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 182d | 1647171 | 65-89 | BuyNo91¢ → 0¢ | $3,885 | −$3,885 −100% | 22 |
| 182d | Vincent44230 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,087 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 182d | Coinupup | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,378 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 182d | alcoh4294 | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,946 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 182d |  Sugarina | 40-64 | BuyYes81¢ → 0¢ | $1,208 | −$1,208 −100% | 25 |
| 182d | Medical-Universe | 65-89 | SellYes12¢ → 100¢ | $1,165 | −$8,492 −729% | — |
| 182d | 0x9ffe…41d0 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,702 | +$40 +1.5% | 20 |
| 182d | Mei-ji | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,498 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 182d | rusgreat | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 182d | Boss74 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,403 | +$19 +0.3% | 20 |
| 182d | 1647171 | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,922 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 182d | Outrageous-Butter | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,463 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 182d | venezuelain | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,485 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 182d | Fine-Column | 65-89 | SellNo71¢ → 0¢ | $2,139 | +$2,139 +100% | — |
| 182d | Coinupup | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,459 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 182d | Fine-Column | 65-89 | BuyNo85¢ → 0¢ | $2,540 | −$2,540 −100% | 24 |
| 182d | ppobb1123 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,778 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 182d | suyizi | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,676 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 182d | Slushy-Tussle | 65-89 | BuyNo87¢ → 0¢ | $1,155 | −$1,155 −100% | 25 |
tupac81,705 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 23 12:00 PM ET to April 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 65-89 means the market gives it about 100%.