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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90-114 | 100% | +80 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −12 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −56 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62d | anon.1980.123 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,332 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 62d | Repulsive-Member | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,226 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 62d | 0x1d94…80da | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,926 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 62d |  LinaBell🦊 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,469 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 62d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,331 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 62d |  jesterthegoose3 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $19,074 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 62d | Knowing-Arthur-Ash | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,949 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 62d | Knowing-Arthur-Ash | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,712 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 62d | karen2p | 90-114 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,663 | +$307 +18% | 25 |
| 62d | pupupuup | 65-89 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,017 | +$96 +9.5% | 23 |
| 62d | sazzaa | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,891 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 62d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,975 | +$26 +0.1% | 20 |
| 62d | beatyesterday5 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $15,935 | +$91 +0.6% | 20 |
| 62d |  guandaBaoFu | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,576 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 62d | suifeng668 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 62d | dafei888 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 62d | pingfan666 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,667 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 62d |  upont | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,453 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 62d | CakeBake | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,592 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 62d | Bankrupt-Loser | 115-139 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,626 | +$184 +2.8% | 21 |
| 63d | Optimal-Overclocking | 115-139 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,554 | +$149 +5.8% | 22 |
| 63d | Intelligent-Tax | 115-139 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,808 | +$192 +5.0% | 21 |
| 63d | carboyant | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,076 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 63d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,300 | +$33 +1.4% | 20 |
| 63d | BinaryBaron | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,552 | +$14 +0.4% | 20 |
| 63d | BBchike | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,268 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 63d | anon.1980.123 | 115-139 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,182 | +$131 +11% | 23 |
| 63d | Actual-Ladle | 40-64 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,200 | +$81 +3.7% | 21 |
| 63d | 0xf14e…6173 | 40-64 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,466 | +$107 +7.3% | 22 |
| 63d |  stauffen | 90-114 | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $1,169 | −$1,169 −100% | 25 |
| 63d | xiaojido202 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,271 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 63d | zhenni | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 63d | beatyesterday | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,791 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 64d | dddtrips | 65-89 | BuyYes50¢ → 0¢ | $1,357 | −$1,357 −100% | 25 |
| 64d | patouossa | 40-64 | BuyYes20¢ → 0¢ | $1,200 | −$1,200 −100% | 26 |
| 64d | KONGkingno1 | 140-164 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,095 | +$81 +7.4% | 21 |
| 64d | Plipig | <40 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,098 | −$6 −0.6% | — |
| 64d | CakeBake | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,389 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 64d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | <40 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,654 | +$346 +21% | 23 |
| 66d | CakeBake | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,418 | +$17 +0.7% | 20 |
dz1ft12,818 shares
BigMackyG1,597 shares
MartinPNZ300 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 20 12:00 PM ET to August 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 90-114 means the market gives it about 100%.