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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +42 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −44 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80d | Profitable-Violation | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,427 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 80d |  stauffen | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,302 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 80d | Any-Success | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,590 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 80d |  Prexpect | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,612 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 80d | tianjiyuyunzhilu3 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,674 | +$24 +0.2% | 20 |
| 80d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,289 | +$17 +0.2% | 20 |
| 80d |  upont3 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,582 | +$57 +0.7% | 20 |
| 80d | Prexpect | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,454 | +$9 +0.6% | 20 |
| 80d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,870 | +$13 +0.7% | 20 |
| 80d | Bankrupt-Loser2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,191 | +$115 +1.9% | 20 |
| 80d |  Sugarina | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,954 | +$48 +1.2% | 20 |
| 80d | pingfan666 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,497 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 80d | anon.1980.123 | 65-89 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $11,291 | +$337 +3.0% | 21 |
| 80d | WCWS2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,000 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 80d | patouossa | 40-64 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,030 | −$65 −6.3% | — |
| 80d |  FFIE. | 40-64 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,085 | +$57 +5.3% | 21 |
| 80d | Intelligent-Tax | 40-64 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,585 | +$101 +6.4% | 22 |
| 80d | YuzuLemon | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,058 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 80d | sazzaa | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,670 | +$17 +0.2% | 20 |
| 80d | Actual-Ladle | <40 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,800 | +$49 +2.7% | 21 |
| 80d | Intelligent-Tax | <40 | SellNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,143 | −$285 −25% | — |
| 80d | Intelligent-Tax3 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $6,433 | +$393 +6.1% | 22 |
| 80d | upont | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,322 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 80d | BinaryBaron | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,656 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 80d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,434 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 80d | Adorable-Initial | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,000 | +$39 +0.4% | 20 |
| 80d | stauffen | 65-89 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,080 | +$224 +11% | 23 |
| 81d | carboyant | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,185 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 81d | ellio8989 | 40-64 | SellYes56¢ → 100¢ | $1,960 | −$1,540 −79% | — |
| 81d | Any-Success2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $6,600 | +$534 +8.1% | 22 |
| 81d | upont | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,243 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 81d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,434 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 81d | dddtrips2 fills | <40 | BuyNo68¢ → 100¢ | $2,826 | +$1,353 +48% | 25 |
| 81d | grokel | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,170 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 82d |  BigMackyG | 40-64 | BuyNo53¢ → 0¢ | $2,448 | −$2,448 −100% | 25 |
| 83d | 0xFd67277Fa638e39eaE6 | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,078 | +$9 +0.8% | 20 |
dz1ft28,196 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.