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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65-89 | 100% | +38 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −19 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | — | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 247d |  Kamikaze99 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $49,950 | −$50 −0.1% | — |
| 249d | beatyesterday | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,054 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 249d | Ashurnasirpal | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,794 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 249d |  Prexpect | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $30,366 | −$30 −0.1% | — |
| 249d |  lasiweijiasi | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,111 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 249d | Shallow-Actor | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,047 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 249d | Ill-Foundation | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,711 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 249d | seaborgiumteen | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,146 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 249d | Wild-Manner | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,536 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 249d | Pungent-Ski | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,451 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 249d | Fair-Tan | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $29,970 | −$30 −0.1% | — |
| 249d |  noreasapa2 fills | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $29,970 | −$30 −0.1% | — |
| 249d |  NEMESi | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,440 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 249d |  TweetPulse.Live | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,402 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 249d | Jason2025 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,006 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 249d | amtuam | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,175 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 249d | 0x9d7a…525f | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,237 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 249d | annerexx | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,608 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 249d | Kamikaze99 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $44,966 | +$45 +0.1% | 20 |
| 249d | onekey092 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $59,940 | +$60 +0.1% | 20 |
| 249d |  ggmggn | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,351 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 249d | Prexpect4 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,367 | +$30 +0.2% | 20 |
| 249d |  crvAlex | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,748 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 249d | cucuruzblindat | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,821 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 249d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,275 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 249d |  Wahhdahhhellielon | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,178 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 249d | Ashurnasirpal | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,061 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 249d |  CiccioGamer89 | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 249d |  HowToBasic | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,000 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 249d | Prexpect4 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,141 | +$95 +1.0% | 20 |
| 249d | Dd8Aa6940ef0b95B2ae32981dFA0ff7caF8dedf9 | 90-114 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,551 | −$13 −0.9% | — |
| 249d |  MyomEverwind | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,244 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 249d |  0xzfl | 65-89 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,366 | −$22 −1.6% | — |
| 249d | TweetPulse.Live | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,387 | +$17 +0.7% | 20 |
| 249d |  PredictionMarketsRnot4me | 65-89 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,494 | +$19 +1.3% | 20 |
| 249d | wokerjoesleeper3 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,030 | +$70 +1.4% | 20 |
| 249d | Kamikaze99 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $95,206 | +$95 +0.1% | 20 |
| 249d | Ashurnasirpal | 65-89 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,782 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 249d | wokerjoesleeper | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,989 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 249d | 0xtopper | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,399 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 249d | 0xtopper | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,399 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 249d | 0xzfl | 65-89 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,963 | +$45 +2.3% | 21 |
| 249d | forestk | 65-89 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,569 | +$79 +1.7% | 21 |
| 249d | influenz.eth | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,180 | +$35 +1.6% | 21 |
| 249d | influenz.eth2 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,233 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 249d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,643 | +$28 +0.3% | 20 |
| 249d | powerFeng | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,099 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 249d | JamesFeng | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,067 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 249d | Wahhdahhhellielon | 65-89 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,103 | +$29 +2.7% | 21 |
| 250d | annerexx | 65-89 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,084 | +$165 +5.4% | 22 |
| 250d |  Archeroon | 115-139 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,289 | −$8 −0.7% | — |
| 250d |  Annica2 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,526 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 250d |  Luninu | 65-89 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,602 | +$70 +4.4% | 21 |
| 250d |  shadow54 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,638 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 250d |  500AndADream | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,085 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 250d | 0xtopper | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,399 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 250d |  Richgoddess2 | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,800 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 250d | SuperBet69 | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,537 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 250d | Next-Carol | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,417 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 250d | dudukos | 65-89 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,922 | −$235 −8.0% | — |
monkmood784 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from February 14 12:00 PM ET to February 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 65-89 means the market gives it about 100%.