| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 11,990 | 83¢ → 79¢ | $9,442 | −$527 −5.3% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 749d | No | 15,000 | 50¢ → 56¢ | $8,438 | +$938 +13% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | No | 9,669 | 82¢ → 80¢ | $7,687 | −$271 −3.4% |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 9,333 | 43¢ → 72¢ | $6,720 | +$2,671 +66% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 749d | Yes | 15,000 | 50¢ → 44¢ | $6,563 | −$938 −13% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Ends in 5d | Yes | 20,262 | 11¢ → 18¢ | $3,546 | +$1,218 +52% |
| Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 3,816 | 47¢ → 86¢ | $3,263 | +$1,468 +82% |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Ends in 14d | Yes | 3,154 | 86¢ → 88¢ | $2,772 | +$51 +1.9% |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Ends in 71d | Yes | 3,317 | 68¢ → 84¢ | $2,770 | +$513 +23% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 3,265 | 84¢ → 80¢ | $2,605 | −$150 −5.5% |
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 9,368 | 52¢ → 26¢ | $2,473 | −$2,394 −49% |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 72d | Yes | 2,451 | 96¢ → 96¢ | $2,360 | +$19 +0.8% |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?Ends in 10d | Yes | 2,359 | 63¢ → 96¢ | $2,269 | +$781 +52% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 72d | Yes | 2,882 | 73¢ → 78¢ | $2,233 | +$141 +6.7% |
| Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?Ends in 10d | Yes | 3,210 | 38¢ → 60¢ | $1,926 | +$694 +56% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 72d | Yes | 2,583 | 70¢ → 73¢ | $1,873 | +$64 +3.5% |
| Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Ends in 14d | Yes | 3,108 | 59¢ → 59¢ | $1,823 | −$3 −0.2% |
| Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?Ends in 3d | Yes | 1,878 | 83¢ → 90¢ | $1,690 | +$130 +8.3% |
| Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?Ends in 2h | Yes | 1,681 | 82¢ → 97¢ | $1,630 | +$256 +19% |
| Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Ends in 15d | Yes | 1,686 | 78¢ → 94¢ | $1,577 | +$269 +21% |
| Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the December meeting?Ends in 50d | Yes | 1,891 | 77¢ → 82¢ | $1,551 | +$102 +7.0% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?Ends in 5d | No | 1,396 | 98¢ → 98¢ | $1,371 | +$1 +0.1% |
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 7d | Yes | 1,814 | 51¢ → 73¢ | $1,315 | +$387 +42% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Ends in 5d | No | 1,397 | 93¢ → 93¢ | $1,302 | +$1 +0.0% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 71d | Yes | 1,388 | 87¢ → 87¢ | $1,212 | +$9 +0.8% |
| Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 3,207 | 55¢ → 37¢ | $1,187 | −$583 −33% |
| StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?Ends in 72d | No | 1,039 | 98¢ → 98¢ | $1,020 | +$4 +0.4% |
| Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?Ends in 14d | Yes | 3,107 | 30¢ → 30¢ | $934 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Ends in 5d | No | 1,396 | 65¢ → 64¢ | $894 | −$9 −1.0% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Ends in 5d | No | 1,397 | 62¢ → 63¢ | $873 | +$9 +1.1% |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 9d | Yes | 874 | 90¢ → 97¢ | $849 | +$66 +8.4% |
| No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 9d | Yes | 797 | 74¢ → 97¢ | $775 | +$182 +31% |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 72d | Yes | 892 | 72¢ → 76¢ | $678 | +$33 +5.2% |
| Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?Ends in 39d | Yes | 2,133 | 5¢ → 32¢ | $672 | +$572 +575% |
| Will Sweden win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4?Ends in 42d | Yes | 928 | 72¢ → 72¢ | $668 | −$0 −0.1% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 72d | Yes | 2,608 | 24¢ → 25¢ | $640 | +$9 +1.4% |
| Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Ends in 72d | Yes | 757 | 74¢ → 85¢ | $640 | +$79 +14% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Ends in 72d | No | 662 | 96¢ → 95¢ | $632 | −$3 −0.4% |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027?Ends in 72d | No | 2,869 | 25¢ → 22¢ | $631 | −$95 −13% |
| Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?Ends in 7d | Yes | 902 | 44¢ → 68¢ | $615 | +$215 +54% |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet?Ends in 72d | Yes | 4,074 | 27¢ → 15¢ | $611 | −$498 −45% |
| Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?Ends in 2d | Yes | 659 | 50¢ → 85¢ | $559 | +$229 +69% |
| Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 3,817 | 33¢ → 14¢ | $553 | −$689 −55% |
| Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?Ends in 72d | Yes | 2,285 | 23¢ → 24¢ | $537 | +$1 +0.2% |
| No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?Ends in 15d | Yes | 895 | 65¢ → 60¢ | $537 | −$44 −7.6% |
| No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 7d | Yes | 1,810 | 41¢ → 28¢ | $498 | −$252 −34% |
| Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 690 | 40¢ → 71¢ | $486 | +$213 +78% |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Ends in 71d | Yes | 705 | 61¢ → 69¢ | $486 | +$57 +13% |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?Ends in 72d | No | 503 | 95¢ → 94¢ | $471 | −$7 −1.6% |
| Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 543 | 81¢ → 84¢ | $454 | +$14 +3.2% |
| Discord IPO before 2027?Ends in 72d | No | 483 | 91¢ → 94¢ | $453 | +$13 +3.0% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 3,109 | 12¢ → 14¢ | $446 | +$59 +15% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?Ends in 14d | Yes | 517 | 73¢ → 84¢ | $435 | +$58 +15% |
| Will Hanwha Life Esports win Worlds 2026?Ends in 39d | Yes | 2,182 | 5¢ → 19¢ | $404 | +$302 +296% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?Ends in 11d | Yes | 3,484 | 11¢ → 12¢ | $402 | +$10 +2.7% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Ends in 2d | Yes | 399 | 69¢ → 95¢ | $378 | +$101 +36% |
| Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals?Ends in 10d | Yes | 612 | 31¢ → 56¢ | $343 | +$154 +82% |
| Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?Ends in 50d | Yes | 1,891 | 17¢ → 18¢ | $341 | +$13 +3.8% |
| Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Ends in 15d | Yes | 948 | 28¢ → 36¢ | $339 | +$75 +29% |
| Will T1 win Worlds 2026?Ends in 39d | Yes | 2,182 | 5¢ → 16¢ | $338 | +$236 +232% |
| Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?Ends in 7d | Yes | 929 | 53¢ → 32¢ | $294 | −$196 −40% |
| Will the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks win the 2026 Japan Series?Ends in 11d | Yes | 415 | 70¢ → 70¢ | $291 | +$0 +0.1% |
| Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals?Ends in 25d | Yes | 612 | 23¢ → 44¢ | $271 | +$132 +95% |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4?Ends in 42d | Yes | 928 | 26¢ → 27¢ | $250 | +$13 +5.3% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 10d | Yes | 307 | 85¢ → 80¢ | $246 | −$14 −5.5% |
| Will Montenegro win 2026-27 Nations League Group C2?Ends in 42d | Yes | 272 | 87¢ → 88¢ | $238 | +$2 +0.7% |
| Will the Bank of Korea hold at the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 1d | Yes | 231 | 68¢ → 99¢ | $229 | +$71 +45% |
| Will Hong Kong have between 70-120mm of precipitation in October?Ends in 79d | Yes | 227 | 65¢ → 98¢ | $222 | +$75 +51% |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?Ends in 14d | No | 226 | 96¢ → 96¢ | $218 | +$0 +0.1% |
| Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?Ends in 6d | Yes | 240 | 77¢ → 89¢ | $212 | +$29 +16% |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Ends in 14d | Yes | 219 | 75¢ → 93¢ | $204 | +$40 +24% |
| Will Azerbaijan win 2026-27 Nations League Group D2?Ends in 42d | Yes | 269 | 77¢ → 76¢ | $203 | −$3 −1.5% |
| Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 690 | 35¢ → 29¢ | $200 | −$44 −18% |
| Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours?Ends in 11d | Yes | 301 | 58¢ → 64¢ | $193 | +$17 +9.9% |
| Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?Ends in 9d | Yes | 358 | 42¢ → 54¢ | $191 | +$40 +27% |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?Ends in 3d | Yes | 1,871 | 13¢ → 10¢ | $187 | −$60 −24% |
| Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Ends in 14d | Yes | 3,079 | 5¢ → 6¢ | $177 | +$18 +12% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31?Ends in 72d | Yes | 1,389 | 11¢ → 13¢ | $174 | +$16 +9.8% |
| No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?Ends in 14d | Yes | 223 | 73¢ → 75¢ | $167 | +$5 +2.9% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Ends in 5d | Yes | 20,262 | 3¢ → 1¢ | $162 | −$539 −77% |
| Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?Ends in 82d | Yes | 242 | 67¢ → 67¢ | $162 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?Ends in 72d | Yes | 892 | 15¢ → 18¢ | $161 | +$27 +20% |
| Will France win 2026-27 Nations League Group A1?Ends in 42d | Yes | 191 | 84¢ → 83¢ | $158 | −$2 −1.5% |
| Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?Ends in 93d | Yes | 230 | 71¢ → 69¢ | $157 | −$5 −2.9% |
| Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?Ends ended | Yes | 162 | 75¢ → 97¢ | $157 | +$36 +30% |
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 49d | Yes | 289 | 55¢ → 54¢ | $156 | −$2 −1.1% |
| Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 10d | No | 166 | 46¢ → 93¢ | $155 | +$78 +101% |
| Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on October 31, 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 170 | 59¢ → 86¢ | $146 | +$46 +46% |
| Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Ends in 71d | Yes | 705 | 19¢ → 21¢ | $144 | +$10 +7.3% |
| Will October be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?Ends in 80d | Yes | 160 | 62¢ → 88¢ | $140 | +$41 +41% |
| Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?Ends in 39d | Yes | 2,182 | 5¢ → 6¢ | $139 | +$37 +36% |
| Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?Ends in 9d | Yes | 360 | 27¢ → 39¢ | $138 | +$40 +41% |
| Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win LoL Worlds 2026?Ends in 72d | No | 146 | 93¢ → 94¢ | $138 | +$2 +1.6% |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 144 | 67¢ → 95¢ | $136 | +$39 +41% |
| Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 192 | 67¢ → 71¢ | $136 | +$6 +4.8% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Ends in 5d | Yes | 20,262 | 4¢ → 1¢ | $132 | −$604 −82% |
| Will OpenRouter process between 675T and 725T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?Ends in 5d | Yes | 254 | 43¢ → 51¢ | $130 | +$19 +17% |
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?Ends ended | Yes | 127 | 47¢ → >99¢ | $127 | +$67 +113% |
| Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?Ends in 42d | Yes | 311 | 24¢ → 41¢ | $126 | +$50 +66% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?Ends in 10d | Yes | 201 | 38¢ → 62¢ | $126 | +$49 +64% |
