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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 115-139 | 100% | +78 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −14 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −47 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 282d | fedeaaajlp | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,632 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 282d | SuperBet69 | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,701 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 282d | Hexagon555 | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,616 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 282d | samponcuochi | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,030 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 282d | samponcudinti | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,208 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 282d | capib | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,020 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 282d | mich890 | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,751 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 282d |  Annica | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,104 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 282d | startermax | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 282d |  Gustav42 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,447 | +$23 +0.2% | 20 |
| 282d | venezuelain | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,098 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 282d | angel.user | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,138 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 282d | Annica4 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $30,503 | +$57 +0.2% | 20 |
| 282d | bnone | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,497 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 282d | CypherCrypt0 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,486 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 282d | Houdray | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,653 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 282d | cucuruzblindat2 fills | 115-139 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $3,535 | −$262 −7.4% | — |
| 282d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,461 | +$176 +7.1% | 22 |
| 282d | btacc | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,088 | +$12 +1.1% | 20 |
| 282d | btacc | 115-139 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,978 | +$22 +1.1% | 20 |
| 282d | ok26063 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,669 | +$236 +5.1% | 22 |
| 282d | influenz.eth | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,070 | +$12 +1.1% | 20 |
| 282d |  KARMASUR | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,553 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 282d | Poory | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,992 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 282d | Annica2 fills | 115-139 | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $2,864 | −$483 −17% | — |
| 282d |  lolboy4D | 115-139 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,748 | +$152 +8.7% | 23 |
| 282d | PredictionYogi | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 282d |  noreasapa | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $16,276 | −$16 −0.1% | — |
| 282d | 0x265f…a448 | 115-139 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,079 | −$21 −1.9% | — |
| 282d | dudukos | 115-139 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,126 | −$34 −3.0% | — |
| 282d | Wild-Manner | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,367 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 282d | noreasapa | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,975 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 282d | dnevki | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,865 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 282d |  ggmggn | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 282d | PredictionYogi3 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,330 | +$46 +0.4% | 20 |
| 282d | sterlok | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,373 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 282d | samponcudinti | 115-139 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,805 | +$191 +5.0% | 22 |
| 282d | oseter | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,647 | +$23 +0.2% | 20 |
| 282d | kokolopo | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,691 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 282d | mich890 | 115-139 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,615 | +$140 +8.7% | 23 |
| 282d | mimasi | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,683 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 282d | Booboobutt | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,262 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 282d |  ChunkyMonky | 115-139 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $2,135 | +$291 +14% | 24 |
| 282d |  eI0zwvzk | 115-139 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $3,697 | +$554 +15% | 24 |
| 282d | influenz.eth | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,129 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 282d | cigarettes | 140-164 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,457 | +$222 +15% | 24 |
| 282d |  AntiCx | 140-164 | SellNo53¢ → 100¢ | $2,748 | −$2,407 −88% | — |
| 282d | konsolshik | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,218 | +$28 +0.3% | 20 |
| 283d | Houdray | 115-139 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,740 | −$260 −15% | — |
| 283d |  A9gain | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | Annica | 165-189 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,345 | −$14 −1.0% | — |
| 283d | sterlok | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,965 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 283d | berserko | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,428 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 283d | besmart20253 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,071 | +$160 +3.9% | 21 |
| 283d |  OwenJ003 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,034 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 283d |  trix. | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,871 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | AlphaAltfolo | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,201 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 283d |  StinkyCobbler | 90-114 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,700 | +$127 +2.7% | 21 |
| 283d | KARMASUR3 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $7,722 | +$722 +9.3% | 23 |
| 283d | samponcudinti | 140-164 | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,104 | −$151 −14% | — |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 12 12:00 PM ET to January 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 115-139 means the market gives it about 100%.