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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 520-539 | 100% | +58 pts | +92 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | −4 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | −12 pts | −9 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | −22 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | −6 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580-599 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600-619 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 620-639 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 640-659 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 660-679 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 680-699 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 700-719 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 720-739 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 740+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 276d | KingOfLol | 660-679 | SellNo>99¢ | $14,022 | −$14 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | KingOfLol | 640-659 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,946 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 276d |  Donateplease | 560-579 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,505 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | Unselfish-Dress | 580-599 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,627 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | Icannotwin | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,016 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 276d |  Lumi5 | 560-579 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,178 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 276d |  Zenef2 | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,703 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 276d |  Fablurou | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,484 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 276d |  Toothemoon-wink | 580-599 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,218 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 276d |  Allrigjt | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,561 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | Mammoth-Console | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,615 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | bnone | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,579 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 276d |  Elonurmom2 fills | 540-559 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,455 | −$303 −8.8% | — |
| 276d |  stauffen | 540-559 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,509 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 276d |  go2bean | 560-579 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,714 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 276d |  NrNrfNrf2 | 540-559 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,162 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | eaiden | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,556 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | bullorbear | 540-559 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,279 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | Bwin0p | 540-559 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,007 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | femoz | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,205 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | 0xda1d…6192 | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,076 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 276d |  beno1cH | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,280 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | davecorp | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,617 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | Min777 | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,329 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | Poiuztrewq | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,498 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 276d |  HuskyWins | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,402 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | 28s | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,034 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | besmart2025 | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $11,557 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | 0x265f…a448 | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,810 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | SuperBet69 | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,256 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 276d |  Prexpect5 fills | 520-539 | BuyYes>99¢ | $26,321 | +$106 +0.4% | 20 |
| 276d | swolfStrikes | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,634 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | glarity | 520-539 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,703 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 276d | onekey092 fills | 540-559 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,518 | +$28 +0.3% | 20 |
| 276d | GOODLUCK.. | 520-539 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,633 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 276d | gomm7595 | 540-559 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,214 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 276d | beno1cH | 520-539 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,280 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 276d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 520-539 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $4,036 | +$282 +7.0% | 22 |
| 276d | GOODLUCK.. | 520-539 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,633 | −$33 −0.9% | — |
| 276d |  Gustav42 fills | 540-559 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $9,785 | +$387 +4.0% | 21 |
| 276d | forestk | 520-539 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,126 | +$39 +1.2% | 20 |
| 276d |  KARMASUR | 520-539 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,950 | +$123 +4.2% | 21 |
| 276d | niceShare | 540-559 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,096 | −$156 −7.4% | — |
| 276d | xyzbstuv3 fills | 520-539 | SellYes60¢ → 100¢ | $6,391 | −$4,250 −66% | — |
| 276d | btacc | 580-599 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | beno1cH | 580-599 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,280 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | KARMASUR | 560-579 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,884 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 276d |  Annica2 fills | 560-579 | BuyNo>99¢ | $24,975 | +$25 +0.1% | 20 |
| 276d | xyzbstuv | 520-539 | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $3,181 | +$758 +24% | 26 |
| 276d | startermax | 560-579 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 276d | berserko | 560-579 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,460 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 276d | LIQUID8dCAP | 560-579 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,028 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 276d | SuperBet69 | 520-539 | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,533 | +$755 +49% | 30 |
| 276d | 0x59BA | 560-579 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,994 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 276d |  500AndADream | 560-579 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,000 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 276d | labuba | 580-599 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,171 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | SuperBet69 | 520-539 | SellNo21¢ → 0¢ | $1,116 | +$1,116 +100% | — |
| 276d | 0x59BA | 560-579 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,987 | +$13 +0.7% | 20 |
| 276d | caitlinbryan | 580-599 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,307 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | eaiden | 520-539 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,328 | +$230 +17% | 25 |
renne6,261 shares
juhaoa5,760 shares
xingkong5,265 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 13 12:00 PM ET to January 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 520-539 means the market gives it about 100%.