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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +52 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −51 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100d |  Espagan | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,664 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 100d | Shallow-Diadem | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,687 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 100d |  PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,299 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 100d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,805 | +$21 +0.2% | 20 |
| 100d |  CyberKillers | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,100 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 100d | Actual-Ladle2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,475 | +$14 +0.6% | 20 |
| 100d | Intelligent-Tax | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,503 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 100d | tianjiyuyunzhilu3 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,503 | +$24 +0.5% | 20 |
| 101d |  Bigwonbaby | 40-64 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,495 | −$97 −3.9% | — |
| 101d |  GUZMANYGOMEZ2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,545 | +$36 +1.0% | 20 |
| 101d |  Kamenshyk22 | 40-64 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,267 | −$26 −2.0% | — |
| 101d | Elonboy | <40 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,667 | −$47 −1.0% | — |
| 101d | abinfafafa | <40 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,980 | −$20 −1.0% | — |
| 101d | karen2p | 40-64 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,187 | +$242 +20% | 26 |
| 101d | Elonboy | <40 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $4,200 | +$514 +12% | 24 |
| 101d | YuzuLemon | 40-64 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,350 | +$38 +2.8% | 21 |
| 101d | pupupuup | <40 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $5,357 | +$326 +6.1% | 22 |
| 101d | dddtrips | <40 | SellNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,987 | −$487 −24% | — |
| 101d | Guray | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 101d | Bigwonbaby | 40-64 | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $1,700 | +$800 +47% | 30 |
| 101d | Bigwonbaby | <40 | SellYes36¢ → 0¢ | $1,619 | +$1,619 +100% | — |
| 101d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,241 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 101d | zzhzz | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,061 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 101d | Bigwonbaby | <40 | BuyYes84¢ → 0¢ | $4,082 | −$4,082 −100% | 24 |
| 101d | Cavernous-Undershirt | 40-64 | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $1,199 | −$1,199 −100% | 25 |
| 101d |  upont | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,104 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 101d | pingfan666 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,694 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 101d | JustMeZ | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,690 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 101d | Lined-Macadamia | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$20 +1.4% | 20 |
| 101d | carboyant | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,433 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 101d | onekey02 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,985 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 101d | Espagan | 65-89 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,540 | +$127 +5.0% | 21 |
| 102d | anon.1980.123 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,166 | +$15 +1.3% | 20 |
| 102d | zhaolinger | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,598 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 13 12:00 PM ET to July 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.