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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +72 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −64 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 130d | JustMeZ | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,009 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 130d |  PredictionYogi | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,245 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 130d |  NotCope | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,287 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 130d | nole-ksum | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,026 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 130d |  AlmostRich | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,191 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 130d |  Mei-ji | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,315 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 130d | Pure-Eyeliner | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,195 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 130d | UpDownUpDown | 40-64 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,950 | −$50 −1.0% | — |
| 130d | Dymaknight2 fills | 40-64 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $4,943 | −$496 −10% | — |
| 130d | EMbrace | <40 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,295 | −$13 −1.0% | — |
| 130d |  jesterthegoose | 40-64 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,473 | +$153 +10% | 23 |
| 130d | startrader | <40 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $9,318 | +$964 +10% | 23 |
| 130d | AlmostRich | 40-64 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $7,000 | +$1,199 +17% | 25 |
| 130d | AnonymousPerson | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,411 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 130d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,981 | +$19 +0.1% | 20 |
| 130d | Intelligent-Tax | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,566 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 130d | ShaunLee | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,390 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 131d | WCWS | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,280 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 131d | yolol2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,000 | +$91 +0.5% | 20 |
| 131d | xxtgsy | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$12 +0.4% | 20 |
| 131d | ujk | 40-64 | SellYes62¢ → 100¢ | $1,268 | −$786 −62% | — |
| 131d | onekey02 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,028 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 131d | luca88 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,200 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 131d | Rickz88 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,368 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 131d | Ag500k | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,473 | +$35 +2.4% | 21 |
| 131d | Intelligent-Tax5 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $12,153 | +$318 +2.6% | 20 |
| 131d | pingfan666 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,000 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 131d | nbjui1 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,300 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 131d | Muzamilhussain | 40-64 | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $1,036 | +$489 +47% | 28 |
| 131d |  Annica | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,667 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 131d | udt123 | <40 | SellYes24¢ → 0¢ | $1,092 | +$1,092 +100% | — |
| 131d | Muzamilhussain | <40 | SellYes58¢ → 0¢ | $1,290 | +$1,290 +100% | — |
| 131d | Intelligent-Tax | <40 | BuyYes77¢ → 0¢ | $1,315 | −$1,315 −100% | 26 |
| 131d | Dymaknight | 40-64 | BuyYes27¢ → 100¢ | $1,511 | +$4,049 +268% | 30 |
| 132d | Annica | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,667 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 132d | carboyant | 90-114 | BuyNo100¢ | $6,149 | +$31 +0.5% | 20 |
| 132d |  husdial | <40 | SellYes64¢ → 0¢ | $1,127 | +$1,127 +100% | — |
| 132d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,478 | +$95 +1.5% | 20 |
| 132d | ujk | 65-89 | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $1,228 | +$432 +35% | 24 |
| 132d | Annica | <40 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,555 | +$232 +15% | 22 |
| 133d |  Boss7 | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,876 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 13 12:00 PM ET to June 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.