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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 220-239 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 206d | shahahakswq33 | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,102 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 206d |  Gabbers2 fills | 220-239 | SellYes85¢ → 100¢ | $2,746 | −$502 −18% | — |
| 206d |  Argona0x | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,100 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 206d |  C78123 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,000 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | FieryPhoenix | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,141 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | niceShare | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,564 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | Soft-Thirst | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,811 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 206d |  jomar498 | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 206d |  all.in08282 fills | 240-259 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $5,031 | −$410 −8.2% | — |
| 206d |  PredictionYogi | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,598 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 206d |  dushen88 | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,114 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | Icannotwin | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,693 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | dudukos2 fills | 220-239 | SellYes59¢ → 100¢ | $4,963 | −$3,518 −71% | — |
| 206d |  4DoorsMoreHorse | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,008 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | sazzaa2 fills | 220-239 | SellYes48¢ → 100¢ | $3,398 | −$3,719 −109% | — |
| 206d |  Gustav42 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $10,246 | +$406 +4.0% | 21 |
| 206d | ShivaLemire | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 206d |  5201112 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,420 | +$25 +0.5% | 20 |
| 206d |  Prexpect | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $26,087 | +$26 +0.1% | 20 |
| 206d | martinlim | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,204 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 206d | Papuasus | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,423 | −$13 −0.3% | — |
| 206d | Wuk0ng | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,450 | −$9 −0.4% | — |
| 206d | forestk | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,618 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 206d | tradethemarket | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,031 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | 0085 | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,015 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 206d | BinaryBaron | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,163 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 206d | 00852 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $3,294 | +$327 +9.9% | 23 |
| 206d | Worldly-Fifth | 220-239 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,270 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 206d | PredictionYogi | 220-239 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,509 | +$15 +1.0% | 20 |
| 206d | 520111 | 220-239 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,232 | +$14 +1.1% | 20 |
| 206d | pol76 | 220-239 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,579 | +$34 +2.2% | 21 |
| 206d | Gentle-East | 240-259 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,024 | −$118 −5.8% | — |
| 206d | Bankrupt-Loser | 240-259 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,766 | +$146 +5.3% | 22 |
| 206d | Bankrupt-Loser | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,008 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | Actual-Ladle | 240-259 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,414 | +$220 +9.1% | 23 |
| 206d | Satoshimania | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,340 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | Actual-Ladle | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,414 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 207d |  Boss7 | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,932 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 207d |  NrNrfNrf22 fills | 260-279 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,897 | −$52 −0.9% | — |
| 207d |  upont3 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,293 | +$81 +0.8% | 20 |
| 207d | Boss7 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,687 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 207d | Boss7 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,477 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 207d | iipera | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,593 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 207d | sazzaa | 220-239 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,096 | +$241 +22% | 26 |
| 207d | Rickz88 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,047 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 207d | Rickz88 | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,498 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 207d | DXDYZ | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,000 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 207d | geraldhew89 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,001 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 207d |  Crypto-PM | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,550 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 207d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,965 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 207d | shahahakswq33 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,100 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 207d | all.in08282 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $4,590 | +$851 +19% | 24 |
| 207d | loujianhui5 | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,861 | +$14 +0.8% | 20 |
| 207d | Zorathyn | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,976 | +$24 +0.8% | 20 |
| 207d | Gustav4 | 220-239 | SellNo30¢ → 0¢ | $1,357 | +$1,357 +100% | — |
| 207d | Wuk0ng | 220-239 | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $1,708 | +$751 +44% | 30 |
| 207d | bing13 | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$16 +0.8% | 20 |
| 207d | C78123 | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 207d | NrNrfNrf22 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,631 | +$58 +1.0% | 20 |
| 207d | Wise-Basil | 240-259 | SellYes51¢ → 0¢ | $1,536 | +$1,536 +100% | — |
Richgoddess214,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 24 12:00 PM ET to March 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 220-239 means the market gives it about 100%.