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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 280-299 | 100% | +62 pts | +97 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −1 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −4 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −16 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −19 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −20 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −33 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −16 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 154d | cambur9 | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,803 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 154d | 0x02Cb3470A405A6076469f385198763 | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,210 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 154d |  hidden-james | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,013 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 154d | 0xa196…9418 | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,314 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 154d | sdfsdf11 | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,508 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 154d |  0xranjan | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,373 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 154d | fdsfsdfs12 | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,499 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 154d |  PredictionYogi | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,295 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 154d |  upont | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 154d |  Annica11 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $84,894 | +$10,767 +13% | 22 |
| 154d | AnonymousPerson | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 154d |  Green.Gold | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 154d | fdsfsdfs12 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,499 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 154d | flyboy1 | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,247 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 154d | carboyant | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,867 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 154d | sdfsdf11 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,504 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 154d | niceShare | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,440 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 154d |  jesterthegoose6 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $26,167 | +$5,467 +21% | 26 |
| 154d | TheTommyToes | 280-299 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,212 | −$11 −0.9% | — |
| 154d | jesterthegoose | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,234 | +$58 +0.8% | 20 |
| 154d | jianghua3504 | 300-319 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,161 | −$22 −1.0% | — |
| 154d | Nightshaded | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,107 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 154d | Annica3 fills | 280-299 | SellYes73¢ → 100¢ | $8,105 | −$3,074 −38% | — |
| 154d | Sirius109 | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,265 | +$11 +0.9% | 20 |
| 154d |  Gustav42 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,460 | +$43 +1.8% | 21 |
| 154d | Warmhearted-Client | 300-319 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,385 | −$35 −2.5% | — |
| 154d | Green.Gold | 280-299 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,599 | −$43 −2.7% | — |
| 154d | Intelligent-Tax10 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $35,445 | +$763 +2.2% | 20 |
| 154d | marbas | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,513 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 154d | Gustav4 | 300-319 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,927 | −$29 −1.5% | — |
| 154d |  LinaBell🦊2 fills | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,220 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 154d | Dymaknight | 280-299 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $8,699 | −$197 −2.3% | — |
| 154d | anon.1980.1233 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,689 | +$153 +2.0% | 20 |
| 154d | jianghua3504 | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,160 | +$24 +1.1% | 20 |
| 154d | Liam221 | 280-299 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,010 | −$12 −1.2% | — |
| 154d | WCWS2 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,544 | +$38 +0.8% | 20 |
| 154d | Gustav4 | 280-299 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,371 | +$21 +1.5% | 21 |
| 154d | Jason2025 | 280-299 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,253 | +$17 +1.4% | 20 |
| 154d | Gustav4 | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,293 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 154d | Degenerate-Dude | 280-299 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,960 | +$40 +2.0% | 21 |
| 154d | yolol | 300-319 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,104 | +$46 +4.2% | 21 |
| 154d |  Dr.napol | 280-299 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,145 | +$53 +4.6% | 21 |
| 154d |  Sugarina | 280-299 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,826 | +$184 +6.5% | 22 |
| 154d | YuzuLemon | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,331 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 154d |  MaxiChibrax | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,523 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 154d |  Meow12 | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,052 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 154d | Simmelariii | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 154d |  LOL525 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,007 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 154d | Simple-Mixture | 280-299 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,036 | −$67 −6.5% | — |
| 154d | mitikohalls | 300-319 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$350 +3.5% | 21 |
| 154d | upont3 fills | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,160 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 154d | EMbrace2 fills | 260-279 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,219 | −$229 −7.1% | — |
| 154d |  0xa8C4d45000b7976d897Ab79c21780E46faAA8482 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $9,922 | +$522 +5.3% | 22 |
| 154d | namames | 280-299 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$71 +5.5% | 22 |
| 154d | Elonboy | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,298 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 154d | 1111 | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,104 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 154d | Green.Gold2 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $24,918 | +$25 +0.1% | 20 |
| 154d | venezuelain | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,498 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 154d |  Prexpect | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,989 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 154d | LinaBell🦊 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,989 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
nimikm3,300 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 15 12:00 PM ET to May 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 280-299 means the market gives it about 100%.