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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 250–274 | 100% | +30 pts | +87 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <100 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100–124 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 125–149 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 150–174 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 175–199 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200–224 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 225–249 | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 275–299 | 0% | −20 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300–324 | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 325–349 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 350+ | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 525d | Cryptosputnik | 250–274 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,000 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 525d |  Mehkan22 | 250–274 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,079 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 525d | kari0909 | 250–274 | SellYes>99¢ | $17,750 | −$18 −0.1% | — |
| 525d |  TheUnconsiousStatistician | 250–274 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,261 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 525d | JSoon | 250–274 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,448 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 525d | Mister-Noob | 275–299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,536 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 525d |  Jerome18 | 250–274 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,022 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 525d |  PredictionYogi | 250–274 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,144 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 525d |  Prexpect | 250–274 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,308 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 525d | 0xtrading | 250–274 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,129 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 525d |  Gustav43 fills | 275–299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,327 | +$49 +0.6% | 20 |
| 525d | glarity | 275–299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,738 | +$16 +0.2% | 20 |
| 525d | glarity2 fills | 250–274 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,152 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 525d | Gustav4 | 250–274 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,904 | +$11 +0.4% | 20 |
| 525d | astromage | 250–274 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,136 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 525d |  HolyMoses7 | 250–274 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,990 | +$10 +0.5% | 20 |
| 525d | kari0909 | 250–274 | BuyYes>99¢ | $17,692 | +$75 +0.4% | 20 |
| 525d | allin88 | 250–274 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,786 | +$29 +1.0% | 20 |
| 526d | astromage | 300–324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,309 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 526d | leiger | 300–324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,202 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 526d | XZZD | 350+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,214 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 526d | AZwater | 275–299 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,509 | +$51 +2.0% | 20 |
| 526d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | 300–324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 526d | 987654567895 | 250–274 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,119 | +$30 +2.7% | 21 |
| 526d | Mehkan22 | 250–274 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,963 | +$63 +3.2% | 21 |
| 526d |  carbonite | 250–274 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $3,241 | −$207 −6.4% | — |
| 526d |  VCVIC | 250–274 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,260 | −$74 −5.9% | — |
| 526d | Thanatos17 | 300–324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,850 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 526d |  Z17774 fills | 250–274 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $9,919 | +$594 +6.0% | 22 |
| 526d | cigarettes3 fills | 300–324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,638 | +$14 +0.3% | 20 |
| 526d | cigarettes2 fills | 275–299 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,335 | +$217 +6.5% | 22 |
| 526d |  Plyme | 350+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,382 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 526d | SirDragon | 275–299 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,871 | +$208 +11% | 23 |
| 526d | meehai | 250–274 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,281 | +$177 +14% | 24 |
| 526d | Venividivici | 300–324 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,352 | +$11 +0.8% | 20 |
| 526d |  CannaDough | 250–274 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $2,573 | +$471 +18% | 24 |
| 526d |  ElonSpam3 fills | 350+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,687 | +$38 +0.8% | 20 |
| 526d | ElonSpam3 fills | 325–349 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,821 | +$84 +1.7% | 20 |
| 526d |  DOEM | 225–249 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,250 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 526d |  lolboy4D | 250–274 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,040 | +$260 +25% | 25 |
| 526d | 911TurboS2 fills | 225–249 | BuyNo>99¢ | $66,669 | +$77 +0.1% | 20 |
| 526d | Z1777 | 225–249 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,332 | −$139 −4.2% | — |
| 526d | VCVIC | 250–274 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,092 | +$242 +22% | 25 |
| 526d | ElonSpam | 250–274 | SellYes73¢ → 100¢ | $2,474 | −$915 −37% | — |
| 526d | glarity3 fills | 225–249 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,418 | +$57 +1.1% | 20 |
| 526d | edc-104 fills | 350+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,271 | +$24 +0.4% | 20 |
| 526d |  stauffen | 225–249 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,538 | −$147 −9.6% | — |
| 526d |  gemeny334342 fills | 350+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,059 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 526d | carbonite2 fills | 250–274 | BuyYes56¢ → 100¢ | $4,651 | +$3,704 +80% | 25 |
| 526d | leiger | 325–349 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,738 | +$12 +0.7% | 20 |
| 526d | Jerome18 | 250–274 | BuyYes53¢ → 100¢ | $1,078 | +$948 +88% | 28 |
| 526d | astromage2 fills | 225–249 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,897 | +$55 +0.9% | 20 |
| 526d |  Lalipop | 225–249 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,013 | +$31 +0.8% | 20 |
| 526d | glarity | 350+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,664 | +$7 +0.4% | 20 |
| 527d |  sunflowerboy | 200–224 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,668 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 527d | DOEM | 225–249 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,141 | +$110 +9.7% | 21 |
| 527d | nndmg2 fills | 225–249 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,422 | +$261 +11% | 22 |
| 527d | 911TurboS | 200–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,175 | +$19 +0.1% | 20 |
| 527d | ElonSpam7 fills | 200–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $36,220 | +$61 +0.2% | 20 |
| 527d | glarity2 fills | 200–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,594 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between May 9, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and May 16, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 250–274 means the market gives it about 100%.