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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <$250b | 100% | +1 pts | +1 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| $250-500b | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| $500-750b | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| $750b-1T | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| $1-2T | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| >$2T | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 450d | rizn | <$250b | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,271 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 450d |  cy6erpunker3 fills | <$250b | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,258 | −$101 −1.9% | — |
| 450d |  0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae162 | <$250b | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,974 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 450d | cy6erpunker | <$250b | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,632 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 450d | nhpx38txna0500 | <$250b | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,520 | +$4 +0.3% | 4 |
| 473d | Varil2 fills | <$250b | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,221 | +$24 +0.6% | 4 |
| 480d | peepeepooppoop2 fills | <$250b | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,551 | +$58 +1.0% | 4 |
| 484d | widheji | <$250b | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,581 | −$32 −2.0% | — |
| 489d | NandorQuest | $500-750b | SellNo>99¢ | $1,148 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 489d | NandorQuest | $500-750b | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,149 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 491d | widheji | <$250b | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,642 | +$26 +1.6% | 4 |
| 494d | InsiderrrZ4 fills | <$250b | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $7,474 | −$510 −6.8% | — |
| 499d | FunGuy | <$250b | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,555 | −$55 −2.1% | — |
| 500d | almost-never | <$250b | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,146 | +$74 +1.8% | 4 |
| 501d | Isorra | $750b-1T | SellNo100¢ | $1,251 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 501d | Isorra | $750b-1T | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,252 | +$5 +0.4% | 4 |
| 506d | almost-never | $500-750b | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 506d | almost-never | >$2T | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 506d | almost-never | $1-2T | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,992 | +$8 +0.4% | 4 |
| 506d | almost-never | $750b-1T | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,992 | +$8 +0.4% | 4 |
| 522d | InsiderrrZ4 fills | <$250b | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $6,367 | +$682 +11% | 4 |
| 526d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | $750b-1T | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,466 | +$9 +0.6% | 4 |
| 528d | lava-lava2 fills | <$250b | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,717 | +$209 +5.6% | 4 |
| 541d | orville | >$2T | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,335 | +$5 +0.4% | 4 |
| 544d |  Kickstand73 fills | <$250b | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $5,452 | +$817 +15% | 4 |
| 544d | LeftieFTW | <$250b | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,239 | −$161 −13% | — |
| 568d |  crystalfalls | <$250b | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$185 +17% | 4 |
| 583d | LeftieFTW | <$250b | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,320 | +$180 +14% | 4 |
| 588d | Aurenix | <$250b | SellNo13¢ → 0¢ | $9,089 | +$9,089 +100% | — |
| 588d | Elarion | <$250b | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $60,825 | +$9,089 +15% | 4 |
| 594d | Xalvarin | <$250b | SellNo13¢ → 0¢ | $11,120 | +$11,120 +100% | — |
| 594d | Astraevor | <$250b | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $74,419 | +$11,120 +15% | 4 |
| 594d | Xalvarin | >$2T | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $30,959 | +$281 +0.9% | 4 |
| 606d | Nobody23041 | <$250b | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,056 | −$144 −14% | — |
| 652d | kewlintentionz | <$250b | BuyNo28¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 7 |
| 655d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | $500-750b | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,185 | +$76 +6.4% | 4 |
stonekeyboad3 shares
Aurelian0697 sharesThis is a negrisk market group over the amount of federal spending cut by Elon Musk and the impact of DOGE between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for <$250b means the market gives it about 100%.