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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1500+ | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1600+ | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 303d | wubddh3 fills | 1500+ | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $7,796 | +$396 +5.1% | 4 |
| 304d | 0xbandit2 fills | 1500+ | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $6,000 | +$638 +11% | 4 |
| 305d | ToyodaMan | 1500+ | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,170 | +$30 +2.6% | 4 |
| 308d |  BrightTiger | 1500+ | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,529 | +$54 +3.5% | 4 |
| 309d | Complete-Abundance | 1500+ | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,046 | +$99 +4.8% | 4 |
| 312d | 4e2fbc2acf | 1600+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,498 | +$15 +0.6% | 4 |
| 314d |  fffffz | 1500+ | SellYes18¢ → 0¢ | $1,159 | +$1,159 +100% | — |
| 314d |  ProfessionalPunter | 1500+ | SellNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,707 | −$250 −15% | — |
| 317d |  tourists | 1500+ | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $7,037 | +$1,051 +15% | 4 |
| 323d |  Dragontree2 fills | 1600+ | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,730 | +$53 +1.9% | 4 |
| 323d |  doubleone | 1500+ | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,035 | +$107 +10% | 4 |
| 329d |  JumpingJacks | 1500+ | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,669 | −$331 −20% | — |
| 331d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C297 fills | 1500+ | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $17,937 | +$2,980 +17% | 4 |
| 337d | ProfessionalPunter2 fills | 1500+ | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $8,706 | +$1,721 +20% | 4 |
| 338d |  DonAntimatter4 fills | 1500+ | BuyNo69¢ → 100¢ | $6,875 | +$3,147 +46% | 4 |
| 338d | betastic | 1500+ | BuyYes57¢ → 0¢ | $1,343 | −$1,343 −100% | 4 |
| 339d | ToyodaMan | 1600+ | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,629 | −$71 −4.3% | — |
| 339d | JumpingJacks | 1500+ | BuyNo56¢ → 100¢ | $3,681 | +$2,914 +79% | 4 |
| 339d | IAmSeuz | 1500+ | BuyYes67¢ → 0¢ | $2,492 | −$2,492 −100% | 4 |
| 339d | bignewsagency | 1500+ | SellYes49¢ → 0¢ | $1,437 | +$1,437 +100% | — |
| 342d | rotowave | 1500+ | BuyYes70¢ → 0¢ | $1,097 | −$1,097 −100% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at any point any Google Gemini 3 model has at least the specified arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) by December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for 1500+ means the market gives it about 0%.