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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sagal Abdi-Wali | 100% | +4 pts | +13 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 249d |
| Pat Callaghan | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| Adam Harrison | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| Richard Olszewski | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| Sarah Hayward | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| Tricia Leman | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| Georgia Gould | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| Zack Polanski | 0% | −4 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| Lorna Jane Russell | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| David Stansell | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| Hamza Chowdhury | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| Jim Monahan | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| James White | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| Siân Berry | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| Charlie Clinton | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| Luisa Porritt | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| Keith Moffitt | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| Mehreen Malik | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| Gio Spinella | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| Oliver Cooper | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| David Roberts | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| Sarah Pochin | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| Andrew Feinstein | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| Candidate B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate C | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate G | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate I | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate J | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate K | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate L | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate M | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate N | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate O | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate P | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate Q | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate R | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate S | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate T | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate U | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate V | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate W | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate X | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate Y | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate Z | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AA | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AB | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AC | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AD | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AE | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AF | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AG | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AH | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AI | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AJ | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AK | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AL | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AM | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AN | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AO | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AP | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AQ | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AR | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AS | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AT | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AU | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AV | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AW | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AX | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AY | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Candidate AZ | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 249d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d |  probability | Zack Polanski | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,130 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 15d |  FaroeseNationalist4 fills | Sagal Abdi-Wali | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,202 | +$81 +1.1% | 10 |
| 15d | FaroeseNationalist | Zack Polanski | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,027 | +$2 +0.2% | 10 |
| 15d |  mrworldwide | Sagal Abdi-Wali | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,262 | +$8 +0.7% | 10 |
| 16d | donthackme | Zack Polanski | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,422 | +$25 +1.8% | 10 |
| 16d | pagliacci4 | Sagal Abdi-Wali | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,052 | +$31 +2.9% | 10 |
| 16d | pagliacci42 fills | Zack Polanski | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,796 | +$88 +3.1% | 10 |
| 17d | fgrtsdfdf | Sagal Abdi-Wali | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$103 +2.1% | 10 |
| 18d | Addarash2 fills | Zack Polanski | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,196 | +$236 +5.6% | 10 |
| 18d | Addarash | Sagal Abdi-Wali | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,366 | +$230 +5.3% | 10 |
| 22d | fluffypenguin | Sagal Abdi-Wali | BuyNo20¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 10 |
| 24d | ash3erman | Sagal Abdi-Wali | SellYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,007 | −$171 −17% | — |
| 32d |  MrShrig67 | Sagal Abdi-Wali | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,035 | −$115 −11% | — |
| 37d | MrShrig67 | Sagal Abdi-Wali | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,344 | +$256 +19% | 10 |
| 38d | MrShrig67 | Zack Polanski | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $2,106 | +$594 +28% | 10 |
| 43d |  BiDiFakePolls | Sagal Abdi-Wali | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,113 | +$375 +34% | 10 |
| 43d |  seal7 | Zack Polanski | BuyNo72¢ → 100¢ | $1,386 | +$539 +39% | 10 |
MrShrig674,307 sharesA by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Sagal Abdi-Wali means the market gives it about 100%.