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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <21 minutes | 0% | −3 pts | −73 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| <19 minutes | 0% | −3 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| <20 minutes | 0% | −18 pts | −39 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| <22 minutes | 100% | +16 pts | +11 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| <23 minutes | 100% | +12 pts | +8 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 271d | MistahFox | <21 minutes | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,779 | +$19 +1.1% | 4 |
| 271d | MistahFox | <22 minutes | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,216 | +$11 +0.1% | 4 |
| 271d | third-eye | <23 minutes | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,064 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 271d | third-eye2 fills | <20 minutes | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,361 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 271d | third-eye | <19 minutes | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,937 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 271d | third-eye | <22 minutes | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,358 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 272d |  cambridgeisaac | <19 minutes | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$40 +2.0% | 4 |
WalterAbrams200 sharesThis market refers to the Diplo's Run Club race at Margaret T. Hance Park currently scheduled for January 24, 2026 (see: https://diplosrunclub.com/phoenix). If Diplo completes the race in under the listed time this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is permanently canceled or otherwise has not been completed by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be Diplo's official race time based on the BibTag System used for the event and published by Diplo's Run Club. Information on Diplo's past workouts can be found here: https://www.strava.com/athletes/25852638 Recent run times: Philly - 3.1 miles / 21:18 / pace: 6:52 Seattle - 3.1 miles / 22:21 / pace: 7:12 San Francisco - 2.88 miles / 19:27 / pace: 6:45 LA - 3.1 miles / 26:55 / pace: 8:40
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for <21 minutes means the market gives it about 0%.