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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.2 - 8.3B | 100% | −2 pts | +1 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <7.9B | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 7.9 - 8B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 8 - 8.1B | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 8.1 - 8.2B | 0% | +1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 8.3 - 8.4B | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| >8.4B | 0% | +3 pts | +3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 303d | Thin-Print | 8.2 - 8.3B | SellYes>99¢ | $1,684 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 303d |  JoeTrum2 fills | 8.3 - 8.4B | BuyNo>99¢ | $27,276 | +$27 +0.1% | 4 |
| 303d | 0x955c…990f | 8.3 - 8.4B | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,634 | +$13 +0.2% | 4 |
| 303d |  aenews23 fills | >8.4B | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,720 | +$10 +0.2% | 4 |
| 303d | JoeTrum2 fills | 8.2 - 8.3B | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,208 | +$36 +1.7% | 4 |
| 303d | Michael5289 | >8.4B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,097 | +$3 +0.3% | 4 |
| 303d |  UwO6 fills | 8.2 - 8.3B | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $46,905 | +$666 +1.4% | 4 |
| 303d |  flow-trader-at-optiver12 fills | 8.1 - 8.2B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $27,408 | +$139 +0.5% | 4 |
| 303d | flow-trader-at-optiver13 fills | 8.3 - 8.4B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $29,584 | +$286 +1.0% | 4 |
| 303d | aenews2 | 8.2 - 8.3B | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,150 | +$17 +0.8% | 4 |
| 303d |  AGPamBondi | <7.9B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,040 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 303d |  TeemuPukki | 8.2 - 8.3B | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,727 | +$31 +1.2% | 4 |
| 303d |  bamesjond9 fills | 8.2 - 8.3B | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $17,577 | +$760 +4.3% | 4 |
| 303d | flow-trader-at-optiver8 fills | 8 - 8.1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,579 | +$26 +0.1% | 4 |
| 303d | flow-trader-at-optiver4 fills | >8.4B | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $9,403 | +$377 +4.0% | 4 |
| 303d | flow-trader-at-optiver8 fills | <7.9B | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,574 | +$30 +0.2% | 4 |
| 303d | flow-trader-at-optiver8 fills | 7.9 - 8B | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,579 | +$26 +0.1% | 4 |
| 303d | cigarettes7 fills | 7.9 - 8B | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,106 | +$18 +0.1% | 4 |
| 303d | cigarettes8 fills | 8.1 - 8.2B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $15,138 | +$123 +0.8% | 4 |
| 303d | cigarettes6 fills | <7.9B | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,974 | +$23 +0.2% | 4 |
| 303d | cigarettes7 fills | 8.3 - 8.4B | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $13,704 | +$297 +2.2% | 4 |
| 303d | cigarettes7 fills | 8 - 8.1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,102 | +$22 +0.2% | 4 |
| 303d | cigarettes7 fills | >8.4B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $14,032 | +$92 +0.7% | 4 |
| 303d | influenz.eth2 fills | 8.1 - 8.2B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,659 | +$7 +0.3% | 4 |
| 303d | influenz.eth | 8 - 8.1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,200 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 303d | influenz.eth | 7.9 - 8B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,200 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 303d | influenz.eth | >8.4B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,199 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 303d | influenz.eth2 fills | 8.3 - 8.4B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,645 | +$20 +0.8% | 4 |
| 303d | influenz.eth | <7.9B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,199 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 303d |  arjennnnn21 fills | 8.2 - 8.3B | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $54,640 | +$1,516 +2.8% | 4 |
| 303d | generalVR2 fills | 8.2 - 8.3B | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,078 | +$92 +3.0% | 5 |
| 303d |  r4dl337 | 8.2 - 8.3B | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,117 | +$33 +3.0% | 5 |
| 303d |  0xdc3E831cad2 fills | 8.2 - 8.3B | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $6,453 | +$434 +6.7% | 4 |
| 303d | rated7 fills | 7.9 - 8B | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,317 | +$9 +0.1% | 4 |
| 303d | rated5 fills | <7.9B | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,254 | +$9 +0.2% | 4 |
| 303d | Thin-Print | >8.4B | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,343 | +$32 +2.4% | 5 |
| 304d | 0xdc3E831cad | >8.4B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,190 | +$37 +1.1% | 4 |
| 304d | rated5 fills | 8 - 8.1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,232 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 304d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | 8.1 - 8.2B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,316 | +$6 +0.2% | 4 |
| 304d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | >8.4B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,305 | +$17 +0.7% | 4 |
| 304d | wokerjoesleeper | <7.9B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,069 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 304d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | 7.9 - 8B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,319 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 304d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | 8 - 8.1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,319 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 304d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | 8.3 - 8.4B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,311 | +$11 +0.5% | 4 |
| 304d | yougotme6 fills | 8.2 - 8.3B | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $11,646 | +$604 +5.2% | 4 |
| 304d |  YangYuxiang | >8.4B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$14 +0.9% | 4 |
| 304d | rated2 fills | >8.4B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,099 | +$30 +1.4% | 4 |
| 304d | rated2 fills | 8.1 - 8.2B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,101 | +$18 +0.9% | 4 |
| 304d | drpeppa | <7.9B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,300 | +$5 +0.4% | 4 |
| 304d | fuck | 8.2 - 8.3B | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,004 | −$112 −5.6% | — |
| 304d |  inrvoice | 8.2 - 8.3B | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,013 | −$51 −5.1% | — |
| 307d |  Jamwayne | 8.2 - 8.3B | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,490 | +$104 +7.0% | 4 |
| 308d |  alexfunfunfun2 fills | 8.2 - 8.3B | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,510 | +$183 +5.2% | 4 |
| 309d |  Epstein | 8.2 - 8.3B | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,116 | +$184 +8.7% | 5 |
| 309d |  Winchance | <7.9B | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,658 | +$12 +0.3% | 4 |
| 309d |  elmcap2 | 8.2 - 8.3B | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,257 | +$95 +7.5% | 4 |
| 310d | rated | 8.3 - 8.4B | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,042 | +$21 +2.0% | 4 |
| 310d |  b4k9xj2wh2 | 8.2 - 8.3B | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $2,724 | −$276 −10% | — |
| 310d | relaydye2 fills | 8.2 - 8.3B | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,260 | +$190 +8.4% | 4 |
| 310d | 0xuhtreddrofdsf134 | 8.2 - 8.3B | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$151 +10% | 4 |
borja1310,306 shares
donglai662,889 shares
9dfbmdfj2,861 sharesThis market will resolve to the total number of gifts delivered by Santa for Christmas 2025 as reported by the NORAD Santa Tracker website. If the reported total number of gifts delivered falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as data is finalized for 2025. If data is not available by December 31, 2025 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the NORAD Tracks Santa website, https://www.noradsanta.org/en/.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 8.2 - 8.3B means the market gives it about 100%.