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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 400k–425k | 100% | +27 pts | +54 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <350k | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 350k–375k | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 375k–400k | 0% | −5 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 425k–450k | 0% | −21 pts | −26 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 450k–475k | 0% | −2 pts | −22 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 475k–500k | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500k+ | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 295d | GondorCallsForAid | 400k–425k | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,359 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 295d | GondorCallsForAid | <350k | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,118 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 295d | SweetChariot | <350k | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,382 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 295d | Candid-Pate | <350k | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,469 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 295d | Skogeru | <350k | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 295d | Skogeru | 450k–475k | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 295d | Asdfqwer | <350k | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,129 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 295d | zxc368 | 450k–475k | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 295d | cigarettes2 fills | <350k | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,735 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 295d | cigarettes2 fills | 450k–475k | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,735 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 295d | cigarettes2 fills | 475k–500k | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,735 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 295d | cigarettes2 fills | 375k–400k | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,734 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 295d |  Optimus- | 475k–500k | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 295d |  ScottyNooo | 475k–500k | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,110 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 295d | ScottyNooo | 450k–475k | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,110 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 295d | ScottyNooo | 400k–425k | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,211 | +$10 +0.2% | 4 |
| 295d | ScottyNooo | <350k | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,220 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 295d | ScottyNooo | 375k–400k | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,549 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 295d | cigarettes | 500k+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,733 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 295d | cigarettes | 425k–450k | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,509 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 295d | influenz.eth | 475k–500k | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,630 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 295d | influenz.eth | 500k+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,630 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 295d | influenz.eth | <350k | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,630 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 295d | influenz.eth | 450k–475k | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,628 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 295d |  AgricultureSecretary2 fills | 400k–425k | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,951 | +$23 +0.8% | 4 |
| 295d | influenz.eth | 375k–400k | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,628 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 295d | Optimus- | <350k | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,900 | +$6 +0.2% | 4 |
| 295d |  Gemini456 | <350k | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,182 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 295d | Optimus- | 500k+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$12 +0.4% | 4 |
| 295d | Gemini456 | 350k–375k | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,020 | +$16 +0.1% | 4 |
| 295d | BridgeLake | 400k–425k | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,316 | +$295 +22% | 4 |
| 347d | onrcf0w13fnqe | 350k–375k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,510 | +$46 +1.3% | 4 |
| 347d | ognoizejo28va | 350k–375k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,508 | +$46 +1.3% | 4 |
| 347d | hnowk0fu0p74y | 350k–375k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,510 | +$50 +1.4% | 4 |
| 347d | iumququpm3gq0 | 350k–375k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,500 | +$50 +1.4% | 4 |
| 347d | egstvss2hqs2r | 350k–375k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,510 | +$46 +1.3% | 4 |
| 347d | smqbomff4v2q2 | 350k–375k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,528 | +$46 +1.3% | 4 |
| 347d | bwwobvw5jm50w | 350k–375k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,520 | +$54 +1.5% | 4 |
| 347d | ltnthhfd25lyx | 350k–375k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,503 | +$53 +1.5% | 4 |
| 348d | efhjl21ef4nn | 350k–375k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,511 | +$39 +1.1% | 4 |
| 348d | oiuvqxsregh2 | 350k–375k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,506 | +$39 +1.1% | 4 |
| 368d | Folletin | 350k–375k | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,255 | +$126 +10% | 4 |
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q4 2025. If Tesla does not publish Q4 2025 delivery figures by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 400k–425k means the market gives it about 100%.