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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 753d |  MLBksRETARD | Iran military response before October? | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,301 | +$27 +0.1% | 20 |
| 753d |  AgricultureSecretary | Iran military response before October? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,371 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 753d | 0x31e7018c67d7d323de8defd89b8d880427ef4ec | Iran military response before October? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,345 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 753d | SlavaUkraini4 fills | Iran military response before October? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $18,704 | +$189 +1.0% | 20 |
| 753d |  just.some.guy6 fills | Iran military response before October? | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $12,226 | +$1,484 +12% | 20 |
| 754d |  Mr-Yolos | Iran military response before October? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,789 | −$52 −2.9% | — |
| 754d | Paimei | Iran military response before October? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,533 | +$44 +2.8% | 21 |
| 755d | Ten-566 | Iran military response before October? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,023 | −$52 −5.1% | — |
| 756d |  ImJustKen | Iran military response before October? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,228 | +$85 +7.0% | 21 |
| 756d | sirenian | Iran military response before October? | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $7,131 | −$869 −12% | — |
| 765d |  raise4info2 fills | Iran military response before October? | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $5,963 | +$1,147 +19% | 20 |
| 766d | sirenian | Iran military response before October? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $7,200 | +$800 +11% | 20 |
| 766d | willy-wonka | Iran military response before October? | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $3,951 | +$809 +20% | 20 |
| 766d | truce | Iran military response before October? | BuyYes12¢ → 0¢ | $1,707 | −$1,707 −100% | 24 |
| 769d |  50Whence | Iran military response before October? | BuyYes12¢ → 0¢ | $1,309 | −$1,309 −100% | 22 |
| 772d | fkfkfkuuy | Iran military response before October? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,006 | +$112 +11% | 20 |
| 772d | Grotesque-Carotene2 fills | Iran military response before October? | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $7,610 | +$927 +12% | 22 |
| 773d | Pacpac-736 | Iran military response before October? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,298 | +$144 +11% | 20 |
| 778d |  JohnWhyNot2 fills | Iran military response before October? | BuyNo77¢ → 100¢ | $3,100 | +$904 +29% | 20 |
| 779d | Mr-Yolos | Iran military response before October? | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | +$400 +25% | 20 |
| 779d | tsll4 fills | Iran military response before October? | SellNo77¢ → 100¢ | $15,526 | −$4,661 −30% | — |
| 780d | squirrel-farmer | Iran military response before October? | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $1,872 | +$528 +28% | 20 |
| 782d | Mosior | Iran military response before October? | BuyYes37¢ → 0¢ | $1,119 | −$1,119 −100% | 20 |
| 783d | tsll5 fills | Iran military response before October? | BuyNo68¢ → 100¢ | $9,831 | +$4,647 +47% | 20 |
| 787d |  crow | Iran military response before October? | BuyNo68¢ → 100¢ | $2,102 | +$995 +47% | 20 |
| 788d |  WongKimArk3 fills | Iran military response before October? | BuyNo64¢ → 100¢ | $7,845 | +$4,426 +56% | 20 |
| 790d | NebulousVirtue | Iran military response before October? | BuyYes39¢ → 0¢ | $1,911 | −$1,911 −100% | 21 |
| 791d |  balto | Iran military response before October? | BuyNo67¢ → 100¢ | $1,405 | +$692 +49% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a military action on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate between August 19 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Iran on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate (e.g. if a weapons depot on Israeli soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Only responses by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.
