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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −10 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 801d |  WongKimArk | Iran military response by Monday? | SellNo>99¢ | $22,815 | −$23 −0.1% | — |
| 801d | 0x1C7Ea49c1B1badD8cdDf6fBD3e2cbCaf7fe3 | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,013 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 801d |  MLBksRETARD5 fills | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $79,206 | +$343 +0.4% | 20 |
| 801d |  AgricultureSecretary | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,363 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 801d | TRUMPMAGA2 fills | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,830 | +$237 +4.9% | 22 |
| 801d | madkkee | Iran military response by Monday? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,825 | −$27 −1.5% | — |
| 802d |  ;lkhkjgjkb | Iran military response by Monday? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,383 | −$32 −2.3% | — |
| 802d | multibettor | Iran military response by Monday? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,002 | −$13 −1.3% | — |
| 802d | Qtyu | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,279 | +$98 +3.0% | 20 |
| 802d |  ImJustKen3 fills | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $22,146 | +$1,764 +8.0% | 20 |
| 802d | Cbarbhwux | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,785 | +$135 +7.6% | 20 |
| 802d |  Ferguson0500Turd | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyYes10¢ → 0¢ | $2,731 | −$2,731 −100% | 28 |
| 802d |  XiJinPing-4783 fills | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $4,947 | +$1,173 +24% | 21 |
| 802d |  BuckMySalls | Iran military response by Monday? | SellYes12¢ → 0¢ | $1,039 | +$1,039 +100% | — |
| 802d |  raise4info | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $2,606 | +$572 +22% | 20 |
| 802d | OffGridGambling | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyYes18¢ → 0¢ | $2,842 | −$2,842 −100% | 26 |
| 802d | MatrixMember | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyYes10¢ → 0¢ | $1,801 | −$1,801 −100% | 24 |
| 802d | Paimei | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,359 | +$122 +9.0% | 20 |
| 802d |  vote.fun2 fills | Iran military response by Monday? | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $7,730 | −$930 −12% | — |
| 802d | unscented-nerd - 53862 fills | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $9,964 | +$654 +6.6% | 20 |
| 802d | LEcrypto2 fills | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,862 | +$348 +9.0% | 22 |
| 802d | KamalaPrezHolder2 fills | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $10,004 | +$1,079 +11% | 23 |
| 802d | TRUMPMAGA2 fills | Iran military response by Monday? | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $4,840 | −$659 −14% | — |
| 802d |  RememberAmalek | Iran military response by Monday? | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,060 | −$131 −12% | — |
| 802d |  oolong-001 | Iran military response by Monday? | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,998 | −$247 −12% | — |
| 802d | oolong-001 | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,021 | +$224 +11% | 23 |
| 802d | Postric | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $4,367 | +$485 +11% | 23 |
| 803d |  Bank. | Iran military response by Monday? | SellNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,311 | −$190 −14% | — |
| 803d | vote.fun | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,980 | +$270 +14% | 23 |
| 803d | Hhkcg | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,479 | +$370 +15% | 23 |
| 803d |  password | Iran military response by Monday? | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,658 | −$346 −21% | — |
| 803d | tsll2 fills | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $8,074 | +$1,222 +15% | 22 |
| 803d |  BustedCungly | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyYes17¢ → 0¢ | $1,197 | −$1,197 −100% | 29 |
| 803d | XiJinPing-478 | Iran military response by Monday? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,207 | −$91 −7.5% | — |
| 803d | madkkee2 fills | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $11,884 | +$1,062 +8.9% | 22 |
| 803d |  Snooty | Iran military response by Monday? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,084 | −$57 −5.3% | — |
| 803d | rblood | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$105 +7.5% | 22 |
| 803d |  just.some.guy | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,593 | +$157 +9.9% | 22 |
| 803d | RememberAmalek2 fills | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $9,914 | +$1,043 +11% | 22 |
| 804d | ;lkhkjgjkb | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,217 | +$198 +16% | 22 |
| 804d |  NadyaSuleman2 fills | Iran military response by Monday? | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $3,271 | −$424 −13% | — |
| 805d | Distinct-Squirrel | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,840 | +$319 +17% | 22 |
| 806d | fkarasek | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $6,000 | +$941 +16% | 21 |
| 807d | NebulousVirtue3 fills | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyYes62¢ → 0¢ | $4,610 | −$4,610 −100% | 22 |
| 807d |  BigShamus | Iran military response by Monday? | SellNo50¢ → 100¢ | $1,236 | −$1,216 −98% | — |
| 807d | DukeRick1 | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo58¢ → 100¢ | $2,171 | +$1,572 +72% | 22 |
| 808d | password | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyNo56¢ → 100¢ | $1,113 | +$891 +80% | 22 |
| 809d |  Harmonicca | Iran military response by Monday? | SellYes78¢ → 0¢ | $2,496 | +$2,496 +100% | — |
| 809d | raise4info2 fills | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyYes78¢ → 0¢ | $5,174 | −$5,174 −100% | 20 |
| 809d | Drab-Regulator | Iran military response by Monday? | SellYes76¢ → 0¢ | $1,052 | +$1,052 +100% | — |
| 809d | Drab-Regulator | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyYes86¢ → 0¢ | $1,194 | −$1,194 −100% | 23 |
| 810d | DunkBruntley | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyYes89¢ → 0¢ | $1,929 | −$1,929 −100% | 20 |
| 810d | ethLover | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyYes86¢ → 0¢ | $2,294 | −$2,294 −100% | 20 |
| 810d |  MALDEMER | Iran military response by Monday? | SellYes85¢ → 0¢ | $1,016 | +$1,016 +100% | — |
| 810d | just.some.guy | Iran military response by Monday? | SellYes75¢ → 0¢ | $1,130 | +$1,130 +100% | — |
| 810d | just.some.guy2 fills | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyYes76¢ → 0¢ | $2,234 | −$2,234 −100% | 20 |
| 811d | BuckMySalls | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyYes81¢ → 0¢ | $1,532 | −$1,532 −100% | 20 |
| 812d | copy4259 | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyYes82¢ → 0¢ | $1,647 | −$1,647 −100% | 20 |
| 812d | Neonview | Iran military response by Monday? | SellYes77¢ → 0¢ | $3,041 | +$3,041 +100% | — |
| 812d | rustking | Iran military response by Monday? | BuyYes87¢ → 0¢ | $5,664 | −$5,664 −100% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a military action on Israeli soil, airspace, or maritime territory between July 30 and August 12, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Iran on Israeli soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Israeli soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Only responses by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.