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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 4 | 0% | +1 pts | −6 pts | <1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| July 6 | 0% | −4 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 27 | 100% | +89 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 7 | 100% | +3 pts | +94 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 8 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | <1¢ · 2¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| June 29 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 30 | 0% | −1 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 26 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · 3¢ | — | ended |
| July 13 | 0% | −3 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 3 | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 5 | 0% | −1 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 28 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 12 | 100% | +6 pts | +84 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 1 | 0% | 0 pts | −20 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| July 9 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 2 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 11 | 0% | −6 pts | −13 pts | <1¢ · 4¢ (4¢) | — | ended |
| July 17 | 0% | −12 pts | −28 pts | 8¢ · 11¢ (4¢) | — | ended |
| July 14 | 100% | +2 pts | +91 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 21 | 0% | +1 pts | — | <1¢ · 4¢ (4¢) | — | ended |
| July 16 | 0% | −4 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 19 | 0% | −1 pts | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 23 | 0% | −1 pts | −47 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 10 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 20 | 100% | +4 pts | — | 97¢ · 100¢ (3¢) | — | ended |
| July 31 | 0% | −51 pts | −25 pts | <1¢ · 5¢ (5¢) | — | ended |
| July 15 | 0% | −1 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 29 | 0% | −4 pts | −14 pts | — · 73¢ | — | ended |
| July 24 | 0% | −2 pts | −47 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 25 | 0% | — | −45 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 28 | 0% | — | −53 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 22 | 0% | −4 pts | −49 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| July 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −36 pts | — · 2¢ | — | ended |
| July 26 | 0% | −5 pts | −48 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 27 | 0% | — | −49 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86d |  PrayForPeace3 fills | July 31 | BuyYes91¢ → 0¢ | $3,229 | −$3,229 −100% | 5 |
| 88d |  Canaryquid | July 24 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,104 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 89d | 247525 | July 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,071 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 89d |  Rex416 | July 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,261 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 91d | looppau | July 21 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,290 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 91d |  C6H6 | July 21 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 91d | Arman2 | July 21 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,143 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 91d | looppau2 fills | July 19 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,583 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 91d | NeoOracle | July 19 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 92d | ChickenBanana-746 | July 21 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,312 | +$9 +0.7% | 4 |
| 94d | Rex416 | July 21 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,995 | +$227 +7.6% | 4 |
| 94d |  Mataty1 | July 21 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,488 | +$112 +7.5% | 4 |
| 95d | NeoOracle | July 17 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,916 | +$86 +4.5% | 4 |
| 95d |  x.o | July 17 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,202 | +$32 +2.7% | 4 |
| 97d | jklsjdwoqejasdf | July 16 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,418 | +$29 +2.1% | 4 |
| 99d | jklsjdwoqejasdf2 fills | July 14 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,873 | +$197 +3.4% | 5 |
| 99d | looppau | July 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,834 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 100d | jklsjdwoqejasdf | July 13 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,683 | +$35 +2.1% | 4 |
| 102d | PrayForPeace2 fills | July 13 | BuyYes77¢ → 0¢ | $3,843 | −$3,843 −100% | 8 |
| 102d | KairoNexus | July 11 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,070 | −$114 −11% | — |
| 102d |  PhysGuy | July 13 | SellYes33¢ → 0¢ | $1,694 | +$1,694 +100% | — |
| 102d | PrayForPeace | July 13 | SellYes80¢ → 0¢ | $2,203 | +$2,203 +100% | — |
| 102d | PhysGuy | July 13 | BuyYes85¢ → 0¢ | $1,800 | −$1,800 −100% | 9 |
| 102d | Arman2 | July 11 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,006 | −$8 −0.8% | — |
| 103d | greengasper | July 12 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,420 | −$217 −15% | — |
| 104d |  Warren-Buffett | July 10 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,786 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 105d | blackjackquad | July 8 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,010 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 105d | Mataty1 | July 8 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,427 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 106d | 0x8931…a90c | July 6 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,315 | +$5 +0.2% | 4 |
| 106d | Trustinghorse | July 6 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,866 | +$39 +1.4% | 4 |
| 106d | Trustinghorse | July 8 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,988 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 106d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | July 6 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,169 | −$86 −7.4% | — |
| 106d | anon.1980.1232 fills | July 6 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,036 | −$163 −5.4% | — |
| 107d | jklsjdwoqejasdf | July 9 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,025 | +$175 +17% | 8 |
| 107d | livepo1y | July 8 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,590 | +$16 +1.0% | 4 |
| 107d | 881112 | July 9 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,156 | +$147 +13% | 7 |
| 107d | looppau | July 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,124 | +$9 +0.3% | 4 |
| 107d | LJa7io23MCv954j | July 9 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,889 | +$309 +16% | 6 |
| 108d |  scout | July 6 | BuyYes19¢ → 0¢ | $1,168 | −$1,168 −100% | 5 |
| 108d |  ZhangMuZhisDaddy2 fills | July 4 | BuyNo>99¢ | $42,515 | +$43 +0.1% | 4 |
| 108d | x.o | July 4 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 4 |
| 108d | zxc368 | July 4 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,000 | +$15 +0.1% | 4 |
| 108d | looppau2 fills | July 4 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,239 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 108d | NeoOracle2 fills | July 4 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,000 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 108d | 0x4452…7ae73 fills | July 4 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,271 | +$14 +0.1% | 4 |
| 108d |  eightpenguins | July 8 | BuyYes28¢ → 0¢ | $1,139 | −$1,139 −100% | 10 |
| 109d | anon.1980.123 | July 6 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,886 | +$89 +3.1% | 4 |
| 109d |  meagainsttheworld | July 7 | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $1,694 | +$912 +54% | 9 |
| 109d | Warren-Buffett | July 5 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,623 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 109d | Warren-Buffett | July 3 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,975 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 110d | 0xc4ca…3df3 | July 5 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,056 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 111d | GCNO1 | July 7 | BuyNo96¢ → 0¢ | $1,083 | −$1,083 −100% | 5 |
| 111d | anon.1980.1232 fills | July 5 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,522 | +$170 +2.6% | 4 |
| 112d | Avamax | July 4 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,038 | +$10 +1.0% | 4 |
| 112d | anon.1980.123 | July 4 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,145 | +$44 +2.0% | 5 |
| 112d |  MrMelonHead | June 30 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,159 | −$12 −1.0% | — |
| 113d | TulipoII | July 4 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,937 | +$116 +4.0% | 5 |
| 113d | Wowiwow | July 4 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,699 | +$69 +4.1% | 5 |
| 113d | anon.1980.1232 fills | July 3 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,518 | +$173 +3.1% | 5 |
| 113d | 0xc4ca…3df3 | July 2 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,046 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
takethat266 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for July 4 means the market gives it about 0%.