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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Strike | 100% | +4 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| September 26 | 0% | −25 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 27 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 28 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 29 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 30 | 0% | −11 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 1 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 25 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 387d | Nebula-Croissant | No Strike | SellYes>99¢ | $1,353 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 387d | esac | October 1 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,126 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 388d | Abandoned-Counsel | September 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,138 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 389d | Lukyyyyyyy | No Strike | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $2,905 | +$595 +20% | 25 |
| 389d | esac | September 29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,029 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 389d |  ULtra001 | No Strike | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,393 | +$286 +21% | 25 |
| 390d | Nebula-Croissant | No Strike | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,514 | +$267 +18% | 23 |
| 390d |  UwO | September 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,194 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 390d | DooBieZ2 fills | September 28 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,469 | +$32 +0.7% | 20 |
| 390d | esac | September 28 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,979 | +$21 +0.7% | 20 |
| 391d |  Dumbeldor2003 | September 28 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,484 | +$16 +1.0% | 20 |
| 392d | Dumbeldor2003 | September 27 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | +$59 +3.7% | 20 |
| 393d | Dumbeldor2003 | September 26 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,450 | +$50 +3.4% | 20 |
| 393d |  DDDASHEE2 fills | September 25 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,497 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 393d |  cruzzzz | September 25 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,598 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 393d |  0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae1622 fills | September 25 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,169 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
tetrose9,622 shares
bbmula67 sharesThis market will resolve according to the first day ET Israel next initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate. This market will resolve to "No strike" if no qualifying strike is conducted by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Only strikes which occur after market issuance will be considered. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for No Strike means the market gives it about 100%.