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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No strike | 100% | +6 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| September 11 or earlier | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 12 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 13 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 14 | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 15 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 403d |  Kimomo | No strike | SellYes>99¢ | $1,178 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 403d | tanazana | No strike | SellYes>99¢ | $2,017 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 405d |  zxdfbdfgngcxv | September 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,598 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 406d |  Kim-Jong-Un | September 12 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 406d |  Dumbeldor2003 | September 12 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,116 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 407d |  0x46E29dcb9cD03B9f39bf5Bf7759b07ea280EF | September 11 or earlier | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 407d |  0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae162 | September 11 or earlier | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,461 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 407d |  exit-liqudity | September 11 or earlier | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,037 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
CubaLibra168 sharesThis market will resolve according to the first day ET Israel next initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate. This market will resolve to "No strike" if no qualifying strike is conducted by September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for No strike means the market gives it about 100%.