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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 17 | 100% | +91 pts | — | 96¢ · 97¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| October 31 | 100% | +73 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 374d |  Totenkopf | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,954 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 374d |  1....2 | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,544 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 374d | PainStealer | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,613 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 374d |  4threich | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,040 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 374d |  Rommel💀 | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,098 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 374d |  Dumbeldor2003 | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,965 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 374d |  JewedGambler | October 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,531 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 374d | 1....2 | October 17 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,544 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 374d | Leading-Population | October 17 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,008 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 374d | trombtvoeimom | October 17 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,808 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 374d | rwo | October 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,496 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 374d | rwo2 fills | October 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,843 | +$21 +0.8% | 20 |
| 374d |  AgricultureSecretary2 fills | October 17 | BuyYes>99¢ | $35,962 | +$58 +0.2% | 20 |
| 374d |  Burnmoneyuser | October 17 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,309 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 374d | wubddh2 fills | October 17 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,441 | +$35 +0.5% | 20 |
| 374d |  MisTKy3 | October 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,708 | +$13 +0.8% | 20 |
| 374d |  Dropper | October 17 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $10,566 | +$130 +1.2% | 20 |
| 374d |  duderr | October 17 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,188 | +$23 +1.9% | 20 |
| 374d | MisTKy33 fills | October 17 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,818 | +$124 +2.1% | 20 |
| 374d | trombtvoeimom | October 17 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,770 | +$39 +2.2% | 20 |
| 374d | 888j2 fills | October 17 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,327 | +$163 +3.1% | 20 |
| 374d | Vibrant-Miracle | October 17 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,729 | +$87 +3.2% | 21 |
| 375d |  MajidJavadi5 fills | October 17 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $12,291 | −$1,246 −10% | — |
| 375d |  ErnstKuzorra | October 17 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,839 | −$103 −5.6% | — |
| 375d |  kiki.aoe | October 17 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,018 | −$99 −4.9% | — |
| 375d | affs20791 | October 17 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $6,180 | −$218 −3.5% | — |
| 375d | BITCOINTO500K3 fills | October 17 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,271 | +$118 +1.9% | 20 |
| 375d | pfooo | October 17 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,077 | +$36 +1.7% | 20 |
| 375d |  ScottyNooo4 fills | October 17 | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $14,825 | +$4,511 +30% | 24 |
| 375d |  FrancisSP8 | October 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,169 | +$13 +1.1% | 20 |
| 375d | JewedGambler | October 17 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,497 | +$35 +2.4% | 20 |
| 375d | StuporMundi | October 31 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,806 | −$194 −11% | — |
| 375d | bigsteps | October 17 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $9,117 | +$289 +3.2% | 21 |
| 375d |  4182 | October 17 | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $3,334 | −$392 −12% | — |
| 375d |  garlictrump | October 17 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,974 | +$116 +5.9% | 21 |
| 375d | affs207912 fills | October 17 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $4,024 | +$336 +8.3% | 21 |
| 375d | Haudegen | October 17 | SellYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,840 | −$395 −21% | — |
| 375d | BMTH | October 17 | SellYes79¢ → 100¢ | $3,880 | −$1,058 −27% | — |
| 375d |  Car | October 17 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,123 | +$292 +26% | 23 |
| 375d | MajidJavadi2 fills | October 17 | BuyYes64¢ → 100¢ | $2,248 | +$1,273 +57% | 25 |
| 375d | Illustrious-Capon | October 17 | BuyNo50¢ → 0¢ | $1,896 | −$1,896 −100% | 25 |
| 375d | 41822 fills | October 17 | BuyYes55¢ → 100¢ | $3,314 | +$2,740 +83% | 25 |
| 375d | 4182 | October 17 | SellNo49¢ → 0¢ | $1,752 | +$1,752 +100% | — |
| 375d | ganatalak3 fills | October 17 | BuyNo59¢ → 0¢ | $6,324 | −$6,324 −100% | 25 |
| 375d | Car | October 17 | BuyNo58¢ → 0¢ | $1,728 | −$1,728 −100% | 25 |
| 375d |  gnagna | October 17 | SellNo49¢ → 0¢ | $1,405 | +$1,405 +100% | — |
| 375d | Poligarch | October 17 | BuyYes52¢ → 100¢ | $1,049 | +$951 +91% | 25 |
| 375d |  1301 | October 17 | BuyNo54¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 25 |
| 375d | BMTH | October 17 | BuyYes40¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$1,501 +150% | 25 |
| 375d | CocoBambino | October 17 | BuyYes40¢ → 100¢ | $1,065 | +$1,602 +150% | 25 |
| 375d | ganatalak2 fills | October 17 | BuyYes51¢ → 100¢ | $2,279 | +$2,221 +97% | 25 |
| 375d | denizz | October 17 | BuyYes44¢ → 100¢ | $2,589 | +$3,231 +125% | 26 |
| 375d | wubddh2 fills | October 17 | BuyNo94¢ → 0¢ | $9,757 | −$9,757 −100% | 20 |
| 376d | denizz | October 17 | BuyNo86¢ → 0¢ | $1,066 | −$1,066 −100% | 21 |
| 378d | 77Win | October 17 | SellNo86¢ → 0¢ | $1,530 | +$1,530 +100% | — |
lkdjwklva2,450 shares
EdvardRunch1,800 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil between October 10, 11:30 AM ET, and October 17, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for October 17 means the market gives it about 100%.