| Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Ends in 47d | Yes | 11,513 | 78¢ → 78¢ | $8,923 | −$26 −0.3% |
| US recession by end of 2026?Ends in 99d | No | 7,000 | 74¢ → 93¢ | $6,475 | +$1,270 +24% |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 5,109 | 79¢ → 97¢ | $4,953 | +$940 +23% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?Ends in 68d | No | 3,752 | 88¢ → 98¢ | $3,683 | +$391 +12% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 5d | Yes | 46,392 | 8¢ → 7¢ | $3,015 | −$652 −18% |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?Ends in 68d | Yes | 3,099 | 78¢ → 76¢ | $2,341 | −$90 −3.7% |
| Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Ends in 46d | No | 7,150 | 39¢ → 28¢ | $2,038 | −$755 −27% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?Ends in 68d | No | 1,900 | 77¢ → 98¢ | $1,854 | +$383 +26% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 2,307 | 66¢ → 77¢ | $1,768 | +$248 +16% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 5d | No | 1,067 | 92¢ → 94¢ | $998 | +$16 +1.6% |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?Ends in 100d | No | 1,000 | 76¢ → 98¢ | $979 | +$221 +29% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 11d | Yes | 1,050 | 78¢ → 92¢ | $961 | +$142 +17% |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 1,300 | 53¢ → 69¢ | $900 | +$205 +30% |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?Ends in 68d | No | 969 | 94¢ → 92¢ | $891 | −$23 −2.5% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?Ends in 68d | No | 900 | 37¢ → 98¢ | $883 | +$546 +162% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 1,000 | 78¢ → 86¢ | $855 | +$75 +9.6% |
| Will Swim – BTS be the top song for 2026?Ends in 100d | No | 800 | 54¢ → >99¢ | $799 | +$366 +84% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5,050 | 30¢ → 15¢ | $735 | −$759 −51% |
| Will Tricia McLaughlin be the next White House Press Secretary?Ends in 434d | No | 750 | 91¢ → 98¢ | $733 | +$53 +7.8% |
| Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Ends in 46d | Yes | 3,326 | 21¢ → 22¢ | $715 | +$21 +3.1% |
| Michigan Senate favorite on November 2?Ends in 10d | El-Sayed | 733 | 93¢ → 93¢ | $683 | +$1 +0.2% |
| Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Ends in 239d | Yes | 9,000 | 7¢ → 8¢ | $675 | +$20 +3.1% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 20,000 | 4¢ → 3¢ | $670 | −$114 −15% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Ends in 2d | Yes | 1,500 | 38¢ → 42¢ | $622 | +$57 +10% |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?Ends in 68d | No | 604 | 95¢ → 98¢ | $591 | +$15 +2.7% |
| Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?Ends in 95d | No | 1,320 | 44¢ → 43¢ | $561 | −$14 −2.4% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?Ends in 2d | No | 750 | 71¢ → 75¢ | $559 | +$26 +4.9% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%?Ends in 2d | No | 594 | 78¢ → 82¢ | $487 | +$22 +4.7% |
| Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 29,691 | 1¢ → 1¢ | $416 | +$126 +44% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?Ends in 68d | No | 400 | 95¢ → 98¢ | $393 | +$14 +3.6% |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?Ends in 11d | No | 1,213 | 32¢ → 30¢ | $369 | −$18 −4.6% |
| Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?Ends in 434d | No | 542 | 77¢ → 68¢ | $369 | −$47 −11% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | No | 600 | 57¢ → 56¢ | $335 | −$7 −2.2% |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 343 | 31¢ → 97¢ | $333 | +$228 +216% |
| Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?Ends in 36m | Yes | 361 | 82¢ → 88¢ | $316 | +$20 +6.7% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?Ends in 12d | No | 458 | 65¢ → 61¢ | $277 | −$21 −6.9% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 275 | 62¢ → 95¢ | $260 | +$90 +52% |
| US recession by end of 2027?Ends in 433d | No | 400 | 62¢ → 65¢ | $260 | +$13 +5.2% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?Ends ended | No | 243 | 79¢ → 100¢ | $242 | +$50 +26% |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 3,000 | 15¢ → 8¢ | $228 | −$222 −49% |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 724 | 37¢ → 30¢ | $214 | −$53 −20% |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?Ends in 434d | No | 560 | 33¢ → 36¢ | $204 | +$21 +11% |
| Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 200 | 87¢ → 96¢ | $191 | +$17 +9.8% |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 177d | Yes | 750 | 18¢ → 17¢ | $124 | −$11 −8.3% |
| Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 1,304 | 18¢ → 8¢ | $104 | −$127 −55% |
| Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 100 | 84¢ → 96¢ | $96 | +$12 +15% |
| Iran leadership change by November 30?Ends in 38d | Yes | 1,000 | 17¢ → 10¢ | $95 | −$73 −43% |
| Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?Ends in 434d | Yes | 1,557 | 13¢ → 6¢ | $93 | −$107 −53% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?Ends ended | No | 119 | 71¢ → 79¢ | $93 | +$9 +10% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Ends in 38d | No | 240 | 42¢ → 37¢ | $89 | −$13 −12% |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 16,000 | 4¢ → 1¢ | $88 | −$486 −85% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 400 | 38¢ → 22¢ | $86 | −$65 −43% |
| Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in September?Ends in 5d | No | 235 | 30¢ → 37¢ | $86 | +$15 +22% |
| Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Ends in 46d | Yes | 900 | 11¢ → 6¢ | $52 | −$49 −49% |
| Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?Ends in 36m | No | 361 | 17¢ → 13¢ | $45 | −$16 −26% |
| Negative GDP growth in 2026?Ends in 97d | No | 38 | 82¢ → 97¢ | $37 | +$6 +19% |
| Will Bad Bunny be the #2 searched person on Google this year?Ends in 68d | Yes | 195 | 21¢ → 19¢ | $36 | −$5 −12% |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 500 | 21¢ → 7¢ | $33 | −$73 −69% |
| Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in September?Ends in 5d | Yes | 401 | 18¢ → 7¢ | $29 | −$43 −59% |
| Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026?Ends in 100d | Yes | 207 | 5¢ → 13¢ | $26 | +$16 +161% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?Ends in 68d | No | 25 | 95¢ → 99¢ | $25 | +$1 +4.1% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Ends ended | Yes | 83 | 37¢ → 23¢ | $19 | −$12 −39% |
| Will Tyreek Hill sign with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 52 | 42¢ → 34¢ | $18 | −$4 −19% |
| Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?Ends in 100d | No | 125 | 73¢ → 14¢ | $17 | −$73 −81% |
| Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?Ends in 8d | Yes | 750 | 12¢ → 2¢ | $16 | −$74 −82% |
| Hike 25 bps flips No change for October Fed by October 27?Ends in 4d | No | 16 | 91¢ → 97¢ | $15 | +$1 +6.6% |
| Kash Patel out by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 75 | 62¢ → 20¢ | $15 | −$32 −69% |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5,500 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $14 | −$30 −69% |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?Ends in 11d | Yes | 41 | 32¢ → 30¢ | $12 | −$1 −6.9% |
| No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?Ends in 3d | Hike 25 bps | 444 | 18¢ → 2¢ | $10 | −$71 −88% |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 296 | 22¢ → 3¢ | $9 | −$54 −85% |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution?Ends in 434d | Anthropic | 15 | 50¢ → 42¢ | $6 | −$1 −16% |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 54d | Yes | 21 | 32¢ → 21¢ | $4 | −$2 −35% |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 2,458 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $4 | −$23 −86% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Ends in 53d | Yes | 5 | 75¢ → 73¢ | $4 | −$0 −2.7% |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 1,074 | 3¢ → <1¢ | $3 | −$35 −93% |
| Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?Ends in 11d | Yes | 28 | 12¢ → 8¢ | $2 | −$1 −33% |
| Will over 55 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?Ends in 70d | Yes | 23 | 35¢ → 10¢ | $2 | −$6 −71% |
| Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 3d | Yes | 1,500 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $2 | −$7 −75% |
| Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 1,075 | 14¢ → <1¢ | $2 | −$151 −99% |
| Will Payward announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Ends in 434d | Yes | 12 | 15¢ → 9¢ | $1 | −$1 −43% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Ends in 218d | Yes | 1 | 31¢ → 64¢ | $1 | +$0 +105% |
| Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?Ends in 36m | No | 3 | 33¢ → 23¢ | $1 | −$0 −30% |
| Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Ends in 218d | Yes | 57 | 10¢ → 1¢ | $0 | −$5 −94% |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 26 | 41¢ → 1¢ | $0 | −$10 −97% |
| Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?Ends in 11d | Yes | 26 | 9¢ → 1¢ | $0 | −$2 −92% |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Ends in 46d | Yes | 12 | 4¢ → 1¢ | $0 | −$0 −65% |
| Will Billie Jean – Michael Jackson be the top song for 2026?Ends in 100d | Yes | 115 | 2¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$3 −98% |
| Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in August?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 119 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
| Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on July 11, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 16 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down - October 15Settled - ready to redeem | Down | 38 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 120 | 76¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$91 −100% |
| Will the announcers say "Qatar" or "Russia" during the Spain vs Belgium FIFA World Cup Match?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 140 | 70¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$98 −100% |
| Will Aryna Sabalenka advance to the Final in Ladies' Singles at Wimbledon 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 30 | 42¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$13 −100% |
| Will the announcers say "Dribble" during the Colombia vs Ghana FIFA World Cup Match?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 110 | 41¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$45 −100% |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 52.5 and 53 million views on day 5?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 22 | 71¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
| Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 100 | 23¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$23 −100% |
| Will the announcers say "Nutmeg" or "Meg" during the France vs Morocco FIFA World Cup Match?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 23 | 39¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$9 −100% |
| Will Blackstone (BX) beat quarterly earnings?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 36 | 37¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$13 −100% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 15 | 23¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
