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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 31 | 0% | −6 pts | −7 pts | <1¢ · 3¢ (3¢) | — | ended |
| September 15 | 100% | +28 pts | +87 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| September 30 | 100% | +12 pts | +31 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| September 18 | 100% | +17 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| September 25 | 100% | +14 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| September 13 | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 9 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 11 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 17 | 100% | +15 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| September 16 | 100% | +19 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e22 fills | September 30 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $10,915 | +$374 +3.4% | 4 |
| 38d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2 | September 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,083 | +$15 +0.2% | 4 |
| 38d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2 | September 18 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,128 | +$5 +0.2% | 4 |
| 38d | RVault2 fills | September 18 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,713 | +$47 +1.3% | 4 |
| 38d | RVault | September 15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,600 | +$44 +1.2% | 4 |
| 38d | Igz88 | September 15 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,872 | −$69 −3.7% | — |
| 38d | September 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,976 | +$24 +1.2% | 4 | |
| 38d | September 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,932 | +$43 +1.5% | 4 | |
| 38d | l39sm34812391js8312 fills | September 15 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,707 | +$124 +3.4% | 5 |
| 39d | 0x7678…22a3 | September 30 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,059 | +$118 +11% | 4 |
| 39d | easna | September 18 | SellYes85¢ → 100¢ | $7,653 | −$1,351 −18% | — |
| 39d | flowert | September 18 | SellYes85¢ → 100¢ | $7,976 | −$1,408 −18% | — |
| 39d | teacheer2 fills | September 18 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $7,778 | −$1,197 −15% | — |
| 39d | Igz88 | September 15 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$178 +16% | 6 |
| 40d | teacheer | September 18 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $3,631 | +$1,210 +33% | 6 |
| 40d | flowert | September 18 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $7,038 | +$2,346 +33% | 6 |
| 40d | gym-402 | September 18 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $6,380 | +$2,127 +33% | 6 |
| 40d | easna | September 18 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $6,858 | +$2,286 +33% | 6 |
| 40d | westdo | September 18 | BuyNo25¢ → 0¢ | $1,035 | −$1,035 −100% | 6 |
| 40d | miirone | September 15 | BuyNo91¢ → 0¢ | $1,998 | −$1,998 −100% | 6 |
| 40d | 0xc4ca…3df3 | September 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,077 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 41d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | September 13 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,859 | +$15 +0.5% | 4 |
| 42d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e22 fills | September 25 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $3,144 | +$809 +26% | 4 |
| 42d | cashy | September 25 | SellNo32¢ → 0¢ | $1,310 | +$1,310 +100% | — |
| 42d | Skinny-Diving | September 25 | BuyNo57¢ → 0¢ | $1,246 | −$1,246 −100% | 4 |
| 42d | September 30 | BuyNo45¢ → 0¢ | $1,746 | −$1,746 −100% | 5 | |
| 42d | cashy | September 25 | BuyNo41¢ → 0¢ | $2,145 | −$2,145 −100% | 5 |
| 42d | plshelpme10 | September 30 | BuyNo39¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 5 |
| 43d | September 15 | BuyYes64¢ → 100¢ | $1,114 | +$627 +56% | 6 | |
| 44d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | September 11 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,452 | +$78 +1.8% | 4 |
| 45d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | September 9 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,372 | +$25 +0.7% | 4 |
| 46d | kindso | September 30 | SellYes79¢ → 100¢ | $4,424 | −$1,176 −27% | — |
| 46d | September 30 | BuyNo37¢ → 0¢ | $1,558 | −$1,558 −100% | 5 | |
| 46d | raniny2 fills | September 30 | SellNo31¢ → 0¢ | $3,052 | +$3,052 +100% | — |
| 46d | pepei | September 30 | SellNo35¢ → 0¢ | $1,190 | +$1,190 +100% | — |
| 46d | kindso | September 30 | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $3,640 | +$1,960 +54% | 4 |
| 47d | raniny2 fills | September 30 | BuyNo30¢ → 0¢ | $2,970 | −$2,970 −100% | 8 |
| 47d | pepei | September 30 | BuyNo30¢ → 0¢ | $1,020 | −$1,020 −100% | 4 |
| 50d | northbe | September 15 | SellNo58¢ → 0¢ | $3,144 | +$3,144 +100% | — |
| 50d | yepear | September 15 | SellNo58¢ → 0¢ | $2,322 | +$2,322 +100% | — |
| 50d | redpi | September 15 | SellNo57¢ → 0¢ | $1,864 | +$1,864 +100% | — |
| 50d | elphonew | September 15 | SellNo57¢ → 0¢ | $3,764 | +$3,764 +100% | — |
| 51d | northbe | September 15 | BuyNo64¢ → 0¢ | $3,469 | −$3,469 −100% | 4 |
| 51d | yepear | September 15 | BuyNo64¢ → 0¢ | $3,476 | −$3,476 −100% | 4 |
| 51d | elphonew | September 15 | BuyNo64¢ → 0¢ | $4,226 | −$4,226 −100% | 4 |
| 51d | redpi | September 15 | BuyNo64¢ → 0¢ | $2,093 | −$2,093 −100% | 4 |
| 52d | browne | September 30 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $4,150 | +$850 +20% | 4 |
| 53d | August 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,562 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 53d | NeoOracle | August 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,997 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 53d | August 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,039 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 | |
| 53d | ToTheWindow2 fills | August 31 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,156 | −$273 −8.7% | — |
| 54d | August 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,084 | +$48 +2.3% | 4 | |
| 54d | Compound-57 | August 31 | SellNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,496 | −$250 −17% | — |
| 54d | August 31 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,360 | +$103 +7.6% | 5 | |
| 54d | August 31 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $6,527 | +$669 +10% | 6 | |
| 54d | August 31 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $2,128 | +$372 +18% | 6 | |
| 54d | August 31 | SellNo60¢ → 100¢ | $4,054 | −$2,689 −66% | — | |
| 54d | August 31 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $5,028 | +$577 +11% | 5 | |
| 54d | arbandy | August 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | +$323 +20% | 7 |
| 54d | 0x1d08…e554 | August 31 | BuyYes20¢ → 0¢ | $1,090 | −$1,090 −100% | 9 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for August 31 means the market gives it about 0%.