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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | — | 0 pts | 2¢ · 4¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82d |  elmcap22 fills | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | BuyNo92¢ → 97¢ | $4,646 | +$253 +5.4% | 2 |
| 189d |  Zarshka | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | BuyNo90¢ → 97¢ | $2,643 | +$203 +7.7% | 2 |
| 200d |  DEGENKHAN | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | BuyNo89¢ → 97¢ | $1,289 | +$114 +8.9% | 2 |
| 213d | asendubpo | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | SellNo87¢ → 97¢ | $1,044 | −$119 −11% | — |
| 229d | Orange-Seep | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | SellNo88¢ → 97¢ | $1,496 | −$151 −10% | — |
| 229d | Ryan13652 fills | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | SellNo88¢ → 97¢ | $4,599 | −$487 −11% | — |
| 236d |  DaOnepiece | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | SellNo88¢ → 97¢ | $1,013 | −$102 −10% | — |
| 243d | DaOnepiece | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | BuyNo89¢ → 97¢ | $1,024 | +$91 +8.9% | 2 |
| 245d | Crushing-Jazz2 fills | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | SellNo88¢ → 97¢ | $2,464 | −$249 −10% | — |
| 245d | Crushing-Jazz2 fills | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | BuyNo89¢ → 97¢ | $2,492 | +$221 +8.9% | 2 |
| 246d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | BuyYes11¢ → 3¢ | $1,958 | −$1,406 −72% | 7 |
| 253d |  Anjun | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | BuyNo88¢ → 97¢ | $6,088 | +$616 +10% | 2 |
| 259d |  bau7 | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | BuyNo88¢ → 97¢ | $1,308 | +$132 +10% | 2 |
ArmageddonRewardsBilly7,688 shares
Wojtek3,181 shareselmcap28,410 sharesAnjun8,074 shares
SongXiaoFeng1,000 shares
XieGuangKun705 shares
allenzzz522 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if official information released by any of the following major centralized exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, or Kraken, official representatives of such exchange (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that the exchange is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 3¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 3%.