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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump by 3.0-4.0% | 100% | +1 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Trump by 4.0%+ | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump by 2.0-3.0% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump by 1.0-2.0% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump by 0-1.0% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 0-1.0% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 1.0-2.0% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 2.0-3.0% | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 3.0-4.0% | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 4%+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 696d | AIisTheNewWalkingDead | Trump by 3.0-4.0% | BuyYes>99¢ | $24,541 | +$25 +0.1% | 4 |
| 696d | AIisTheNewWalkingDead | Trump by 2.0-3.0% | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,155 | +$14 +0.1% | 4 |
| 696d | AIisTheNewWalkingDead | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,544 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 696d | AIisTheNewWalkingDead | Trump by 1.0-2.0% | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,097 | +$13 +0.1% | 4 |
| 696d | cigarettes | Trump by 2.0-3.0% | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,708 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 696d | cigarettes | Trump by 1.0-2.0% | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,708 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 696d | cigarettes | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,707 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 696d | atai | Trump by 3.0-4.0% | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,705 | +$5 +0.3% | 4 |
| 696d | Cool6002 fills | Trump by 3.0-4.0% | SellYes77¢ → 100¢ | $6,585 | −$1,994 −30% | — |
| 700d |  elmcap2 | Trump by 3.0-4.0% | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,065 | +$55 +1.1% | 4 |
| 702d |  Fortuna777 | Trump by 3.0-4.0% | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,155 | −$47 −4.0% | — |
| 704d |  ImJustKen | Harris by 4%+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,496 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 706d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly | Trump by 3.0-4.0% | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,469 | −$163 −3.0% | — |
| 707d | asdfasdfasdfasdfafds | Trump by 3.0-4.0% | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $6,983 | −$261 −3.7% | — |
| 707d | asdfasdfasdfasdfafds | Trump by 2.0-3.0% | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,487 | −$143 −1.9% | — |
| 708d | Dafy2 fills | Trump by 2.0-3.0% | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,729 | −$152 −3.2% | — |
| 708d | rzabounidis | Trump by 3.0-4.0% | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,132 | −$134 −3.2% | — |
| 710d | Mara | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,983 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 710d |  Apsalar2 fills | Harris by 2.0-3.0% | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,123 | +$18 +0.1% | 4 |
| 710d | Apsalar2 fills | Harris by 0-1.0% | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,584 | +$11 +0.1% | 4 |
| 710d | Apsalar | Harris by 1.0-2.0% | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,800 | +$10 +0.1% | 4 |
| 710d |  Mr.Lovegood | Trump by 3.0-4.0% | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,328 | −$163 −12% | — |
| 710d | Mr.Lovegood | Trump by 3.0-4.0% | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,403 | +$248 +18% | 4 |
| 712d | Cool6002 fills | Trump by 3.0-4.0% | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $7,000 | +$2,393 +34% | 4 |
| 712d |  Cajetan | Trump by 2.0-3.0% | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $4,106 | +$1,443 +35% | 4 |
| 713d | Dafy | Trump by 2.0-3.0% | BuyNo60¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$800 +67% | 4 |
| 713d | ExhaustedBoyBilly | Harris by 4%+ | SellNo>99¢ | $2,146 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 713d | 0xa00f1bc11204fa21eee9e6780e0a | Trump by 2.0-3.0% | BuyNo76¢ → 100¢ | $1,140 | +$360 +32% | 4 |
| 715d | asdfasdfasdfasdfafds | Trump by 2.0-3.0% | BuyNo63¢ → 100¢ | $1,249 | +$734 +59% | 4 |
| 716d | 8BlocksCapital | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyNo68¢ → 100¢ | $1,566 | +$742 +47% | 4 |
| 716d |  TradeDeficitArchitect | Harris by 3.0-4.0% | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,470 | +$30 +2.0% | 4 |
| 716d | 8BlocksCapital | Trump by 2.0-3.0% | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,375 | +$125 +5.3% | 4 |
| 716d | 8BlocksCapital | Trump by 1.0-2.0% | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,413 | +$88 +3.6% | 4 |
| 718d | kocinakn | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyYes21¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 16 |
| 719d | ChrisV | Harris by 4%+ | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,369 | +$152 +11% | 6 |
| 720d | AnonymousUsername2 fills | Harris by 4%+ | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $3,190 | +$328 +10% | 6 |
| 722d | ChrisV2 fills | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $4,527 | +$1,128 +25% | 4 |
| 723d | AnonymousUsername | Trump by 1.0-2.0% | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,038 | +$146 +14% | 5 |
| 727d | AnonymousUsername | Trump by 2.0-3.0% | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,384 | +$190 +14% | 4 |
| 728d | AnonymousUsername | Trump by 4.0%+ | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $2,039 | +$715 +35% | 4 |
| 734d | ImJustKen | Harris by 4%+ | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,779 | +$220 +12% | 4 |
| 734d | AnonymousUsername | Harris by 0-1.0% | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,930 | +$368 +19% | 4 |
This is a market on the margin of victory in the Nevada elections.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Trump by 3.0-4.0% means the market gives it about 100%.