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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Party | 54% | −1 pts | +10 pts | 53¢ · 55¢ (2¢) | $117 | in 15d |
| Labour Party | 42% | +4 pts | −13 pts | 40¢ · 43¢ (3¢) | $171 | in 15d |
| Green Party | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $5 | in 15d |
| ACT New Zealand | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $5 | in 15d |
| New Zealand First Party | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $5 | in 15d |
| Te Pāti Māori | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $5 | in 15d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d | Cando8 | National Party | BuyYes59¢ → 54¢ | $1,000 | −$83 −8.3% | 30 |
| 3d | Maplesky | National Party | BuyYes48¢ → 54¢ | $2,412 | +$311 +13% | 30 |
| 123d |  RememberAmalek | Labour Party | BuyYes59¢ → 42¢ | $1,735 | −$517 −30% | 30 |
| 123d | RememberAmalek | National Party | BuyNo59¢ → 46¢ | $2,314 | −$503 −22% | 30 |
probability1,455 shares
Hyperlong333 sharesRememberAmalek1,845 shares
Haradwaith356 shares
macrosteaks289 sharesA general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid part list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 54¢ for National Party means the market gives it about 54%.