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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Somalia | 100% | +64 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 68d |
| Yemen | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Cuba | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Venezuela | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Iraq | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Iran | 0% | −31 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Nigeria | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Syria | 0% | −18 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Other | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| None before 2027 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Mexico | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Colombia | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 283d |  MagicEightBall | Somalia | SellYes>99¢ | $1,607 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | 20802025 | Somalia | SellYes>99¢ | $1,294 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 283d |  Zyns | Somalia | SellYes>99¢ | $1,806 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | POWERSLAP-EXPERT | Somalia | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | iamgone3 fills | Iran | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,694 | +$77 +0.8% | 20 |
| 283d |  duderr | Iran | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,330 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 283d |  Totenkopf | Iran | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,139 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 283d |  Burnmoneyuser | Iran | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,314 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 283d |  Infringe | Somalia | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,581 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 283d | iamgone3 fills | Somalia | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $10,698 | +$81 +0.8% | 20 |
| 283d |  Parz1vaI2 fills | Somalia | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,821 | +$63 +0.9% | 20 |
| 283d | yougotme | Iran | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,177 | +$12 +1.0% | 20 |
| 283d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | Yemen | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,486 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 283d | influenz.eth4 fills | Iran | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,823 | +$52 +0.9% | 20 |
| 283d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | Syria | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,486 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 283d | influenz.eth2 fills | Syria | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,288 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 283d | influenz.eth5 fills | Yemen | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,065 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 283d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | Iran | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,373 | +$19 +0.8% | 20 |
| 283d | cigarettes | Iran | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,208 | +$12 +1.0% | 20 |
| 283d |  bamesjond2 fills | Somalia | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,120 | +$33 +1.0% | 20 |
| 283d |  Car2 fills | Iran | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,258 | +$53 +1.0% | 20 |
| 283d |  DonationsReceiver | Iran | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,066 | +$9 +0.8% | 20 |
| 283d |  paddaa | Mexico | SellNo>99¢ | $2,506 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | paddaa | Cuba | SellNo>99¢ | $1,902 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 283d |  HowToBasic | Iran | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$18 +0.9% | 20 |
| 283d | yougotme4 fills | Somalia | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,855 | +$53 +0.8% | 20 |
| 283d |  CertifiedCRY | Somalia | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,974 | +$26 +1.3% | 20 |
| 283d |  ggmggn2 fills | Iran | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,372 | +$15 +0.4% | 20 |
| 283d | ggmggn | Somalia | BuyYes100¢ | $1,725 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 283d |  awaylot | Somalia | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,171 | +$9 +0.8% | 20 |
| 283d |  sorcerer.09 | Somalia | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,452 | +$12 +0.8% | 20 |
| 283d |  BeneGesseritVoice | Iran | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,246 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 283d |  enesaurus2 fills | Somalia | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,537 | +$167 +2.6% | 20 |
| 283d | Sonix | Somalia | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,637 | +$13 +0.8% | 20 |
| 283d |  Bromley86 | Somalia | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,896 | +$26 +0.5% | 20 |
| 283d |  49023809234904 | Somalia | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,080 | −$11 −1.0% | — |
| 283d |  aenews26 fills | Somalia | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $18,227 | +$690 +3.8% | 20 |
| 283d |  0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae1622 fills | Somalia | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,713 | +$141 +2.1% | 20 |
| 283d | influenz.eth | Mexico | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 283d | Laurenman | Somalia | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,643 | +$48 +1.0% | 20 |
| 283d | dube | Somalia | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,877 | +$77 +1.3% | 20 |
| 283d |  Tenebrus7 | Iran | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,018 | −$31 −3.1% | — |
| 283d | duderr | Somalia | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,014 | +$31 +3.1% | 20 |
| 283d | Selloutlife | Somalia | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,571 | +$49 +3.1% | 20 |
| 283d |  The-Joker | Somalia | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,555 | +$82 +5.3% | 20 |
| 283d | BeneGesseritVoice2 fills | Somalia | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $4,916 | +$306 +6.2% | 20 |
| 283d | IlIIllIIIllIIl | Somalia | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $6,072 | +$626 +10% | 20 |
| 283d |  cookiejar2 fills | Somalia | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $8,819 | +$969 +11% | 20 |
| 283d | duderr2 fills | None before 2027 | BuyNo>99¢ | $27,862 | +$43 +0.2% | 20 |
| 283d |  Trading4Fridge2 fills | Somalia | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $2,278 | +$1,154 +51% | 20 |
| 283d | junkbonds | Iran | BuyYes55¢ → 0¢ | $2,030 | −$2,030 −100% | 20 |
| 283d |  TylerTurden | None before 2027 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,610 | −$10 −0.4% | — |
| 283d | Gifted-ConNew account | Iran | BuyYes76¢ → 0¢ | $1,200 | −$1,200 −100% | 32 |
| 283d | amt4532 | Iran | BuyYes63¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 20 |
| 283d | Trusty-Towel | None before 2027 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,427 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 284d | Car | Iran | SellNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,266 | −$234 −18% | — |
| 284d | enesaurus | Cuba | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,835 | +$165 +3.4% | 20 |
| 284d | Parz1vaI | Other | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,537 | +$13 +0.8% | 20 |
| 284d | jaedung | Venezuela | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,380 | +$24 +1.0% | 20 |
| 284d | Cassiopeian | None before 2027 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,064 | +$36 +0.3% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the first country against which the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil or any official embassy or consulate after the time of this market's creation. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the listed country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. If the U.S. does not strike another country by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2027". If the U.S. strikes a country which is not listed next, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Somalia means the market gives it about 100%.