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Polymarket · Politics
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11% | 0 pts | +4 pts | 10¢ · 13¢ (3¢) | — | in 177d |
| Carole Delga | 2% | — | −1 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | — | in 177d |
| Édouard Philippe | 37% | −1 pts | −1 pts | 36¢ · 37¢ (1¢) | — | in 177d |
| François Ruffin | 6% | +1 pts | +2 pts | 4¢ · 8¢ (3¢) | — | in 177d |
| Fabien Roussel | 3% | — | — | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | — | in 177d |
| Manuel Bompard | 4% | — | 0 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | — | in 177d |
| Marine Le Pen | 86% | −5 pts | −4 pts | 84¢ · 87¢ (3¢) | $6.32K | in 177d |
| Élisabeth Borne | 4% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | — | in 177d |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 4% | — | 0 pts | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | — | in 177d |
| Ségolène Royal | 4% | +1 pts | +1 pts | 4¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | — | in 177d |
| Sarah Knafo | 5% | — | — | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | — | in 177d |
| Marine Tondelier | 2% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | — | in 177d |
| Juan Branco | 4% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | — | in 177d |
| François Bayrou | 3% | — | — | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | — | in 177d |
| Bruno Retailleau | 6% | — | 0 pts | 6¢ · 6¢ (<1¢) | — | in 177d |
| David Lisnard | 15% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 14¢ · 16¢ (2¢) | $3.86K | in 177d |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 4% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | — | in 177d |
| Clémence Guetté | 3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 5¢ (3¢) | — | in 177d |
| Valérie Pécresse | 1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · 2¢ (2¢) | — | in 177d |
| Gérald Darmanin | 4% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | — | in 177d |
| Dominique de Villepin | 6% | — | — | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | — | in 177d |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 4% | — | 0 pts | 4¢ · 4¢ (<1¢) | — | in 177d |
| Mathilde Panot | 2% | 0 pts | — | 1¢ · 4¢ (3¢) | — | in 177d |
| François Asselineau | 5% | +1 pts | +1 pts | 4¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | — | in 177d |
| Xavier Bertrand | 1% | 0 pts | — | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | in 177d |
| François Hollande | 6% | +1 pts | +1 pts | 6¢ · 7¢ (1¢) | $1.56K | in 177d |
| Gabriel Attal | 8% | +3 pts | +2 pts | 7¢ · 10¢ (3¢) | $940 | in 177d |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 2% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | — | in 177d |
| Jordan Bardella | 8% | +2 pts | +2 pts | 7¢ · 8¢ (1¢) | $905 | in 177d |
| Éric Zemmour | 5% | — | 0 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | — | in 177d |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 8% | +4 pts | +4 pts | 6¢ · 10¢ (4¢) | $617 | in 177d |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 43% | — | +4 pts | 41¢ · 44¢ (3¢) | $408 | in 177d |
| Jean Castex | 2% | +1 pts | +1 pts | 1¢ · 4¢ (3¢) | $222 | in 177d |
| Olivier Faure | 1% | +1 pts | −3 pts | <1¢ · 2¢ (2¢) | $53.4 | in 177d |
| Michel Barnier | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $50 | in 177d |
| Clémentine Autain | 2% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 4¢ (3¢) | $15.9 | in 177d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6h |  DFK5 fills | David Lisnard | SellNo85¢ | $9,222 | +$14 +0.2% | — |
| 9d | lisnardpresident | David Lisnard | BuyYes16¢ → 15¢ | $1,012 | −$51 −5.1% | 30 |
| 11d | amame | David Lisnard | BuyNo86¢ → 85¢ | $1,015 | −$10 −0.9% | 20 |
| 12d | DFK | David Lisnard | BuyNo85¢ | $1,211 | −$4 −0.3% | 20 |
| 15d | Pikassiette3 fills | David Lisnard | BuyNo86¢ → 85¢ | $5,000 | −$79 −1.6% | 19 |
| 16d |  Jydyjyd | Carole Delga | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $3,605 | +$26 +0.7% | 10 |
| 18d | Vietnam74 fills | David Lisnard | BuyNo89¢ → 85¢ | $14,521 | −$721 −5.0% | 17 |
| 18d | Thibaud | David Lisnard | BuyYes22¢ → 15¢ | $3,013 | −$926 −31% | 36 |
| 19d | PascalPro4 fills | David Lisnard | BuyNo88¢ → 85¢ | $13,840 | −$544 −3.9% | 18 |
| 23d | biboutou | David Lisnard | BuyNo91¢ → 85¢ | $2,071 | −$146 −7.1% | 16 |
| 29d | nuiuh | Jean-Luc Mélenchon | BuyYes53¢ → 43¢ | $1,000 | −$194 −19% | 30 |
| 39d |  Venimous | David Lisnard | BuyYes11¢ → 15¢ | $1,021 | +$385 +38% | 30 |
| 106d |  flovertaco | Élisabeth Borne | BuyNo94¢ → 96¢ | $1,656 | +$45 +2.7% | 10 |
| 106d | flovertaco | François Ruffin | BuyNo91¢ → 94¢ | $1,354 | +$38 +2.8% | 10 |
| 108d | StudentMoney2 fills | Jordan Bardella | BuyNo85¢ → 93¢ | $2,529 | +$230 +9.1% | 20 |
| 121d |  FrozenParasite | Jordan Bardella | BuyYes63¢ → 8¢ | $1,053 | −$928 −88% | 30 |
flovertaco210 sharesDFK617 shares
archaic260 shares
Haradwaith161 sharesThe next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 11¢ for Raphaël Glucksmann means the market gives it about 11%.