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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sébastien Lecornu | 100% | +67 pts | +91 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Lucie Castets | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Bruno Retailleau | 0% | −2 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| No new PM | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Xavier Bertrand | 0% | −4 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| David Lisnard | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Valérie Pécresse | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jordan Bardella | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Éric Zemmour | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Gérald Darmanin | 0% | −4 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Éric Lombard | 0% | −7 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 0% | −4 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Catherine Vautrin | 0% | −8 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Pierre Moscovici | 0% | −2 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jean Castex | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Roland Lescure | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Candidate H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate I | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate J | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate K | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate L | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate M | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate N | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate O | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate P | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate Q | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate R | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate S | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate T | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate U | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate V | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate W | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate X | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate Y | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Election called | 0% | −4 pts | −35 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 409d |  knrad | Sébastien Lecornu | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,110 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 409d | yesnoyesnot | Sébastien Lecornu | SellYes>99¢ | $4,093 | −$11 −0.3% | — |
| 410d |  Ahpo | Sébastien Lecornu | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,904 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 410d | Electrum2 | Sébastien Lecornu | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,183 | −$12 −1.0% | — |
| 410d |  0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae162 | Sébastien Lecornu | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,773 | +$38 +1.0% | 4 |
| 410d |  Patroclus | Sébastien Lecornu | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,750 | +$271 +15% | 4 |
| 410d | yesnoyesnot | Sébastien Lecornu | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $2,998 | +$1,106 +37% | 4 |
| 411d |  -Jarvis- | No new PM | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,430 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 412d |  Vanquish | No new PM | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,337 | +$65 +2.8% | 4 |
| 417d |  Babar1952 | Bernard Cazeneuve | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $1,037 | +$287 +28% | 4 |
FreeCityIndividual1,111 sharesFrench Prime Minister François Bayrou called for a vote of confidence in his government on August 25, 2025. The vote is scheduled for September 8, 2025, and Bayrou is expected to lose, as major opposition parties have announced their intention to vote against him. If the confidence vote fails, President Emmanuel Macron will be required to appoint a new prime minister. This is a market on who will be the next Prime Minister of France.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Sébastien Lecornu means the market gives it about 100%.