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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3–4 | 100% | +77 pts | +81 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ≤2 | 0% | −5 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 5–6 | 0% | −29 pts | −31 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 7–8 | 0% | −19 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 9–10 | 0% | −13 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 11–14 | 0% | −6 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 15–19 | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20+ | 0% | −6 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 533d | JackWyatt | 3–4 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,481 | −$7 −0.2% | — |
| 533d | AreWeNotEntertained2 fills | 3–4 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,063 | +$16 +0.2% | 10 |
| 533d | LBZone2 fills | 3–4 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,241 | +$9 +0.2% | 10 |
| 533d | LBZone2 fills | 5–6 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,486 | +$15 +0.1% | 10 |
| 533d | wokerjoesleeper3 fills | 5–6 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,380 | +$32 +0.6% | 10 |
| 533d |  dotethguy | 3–4 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,406 | +$7 +0.5% | 10 |
| 533d | ssm86-X2p93 fills | 3–4 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,302 | +$31 +0.5% | 10 |
| 533d | 48MGX75VLQ2 fills | 5–6 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,205 | +$23 +0.7% | 10 |
| 533d | elkamello2 fills | 3–4 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $29,388 | +$155 +0.5% | 10 |
| 533d |  andy29 | 3–4 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,134 | +$8 +0.7% | 10 |
| 533d | Adam001 | 3–4 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,745 | +$70 +1.5% | 10 |
| 533d | eNakeVets | 5–6 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,053 | +$46 +1.5% | 10 |
| 533d | JackWyatt | 3–4 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,400 | +$88 +2.6% | 10 |
| 533d |  Withnail.and.I | 3–4 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,029 | +$3 +0.3% | 10 |
| 533d | Yaakov1994 | 3–4 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,361 | +$10 +0.7% | 10 |
| 533d | Venividivici | 20+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,621 | +$5 +0.3% | 10 |
| 533d | z0vulon2 fills | 3–4 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,024 | +$63 +3.1% | 10 |
| 533d | wubddh | 5–6 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,021 | +$12 +1.2% | 10 |
| 533d | IWantTruth | 3–4 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,218 | +$31 +2.5% | 10 |
| 533d |  knrad | 9–10 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 10 |
| 533d | Zens | 3–4 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,809 | −$156 −8.6% | — |
| 533d | Zens | 3–4 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,898 | +$67 +3.5% | 10 |
| 533d | WeinerBallz | 3–4 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,064 | +$18 +1.7% | 10 |
| 533d | polyfabian | 5–6 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,489 | +$8 +0.3% | 10 |
| 533d |  Slowroasted | 15–19 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,876 | +$4 +0.1% | 10 |
| 533d |  AgricultureSecretary2 fills | 3–4 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $19,249 | +$398 +2.1% | 10 |
| 533d | meropi2 fills | 20+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,417 | +$14 +0.4% | 10 |
| 533d | AgricultureSecretary | 20+ | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,215 | +$29 +2.4% | 10 |
| 533d | AgricultureSecretary | 15–19 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,975 | +$42 +2.1% | 10 |
| 533d | AgricultureSecretary | 9–10 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,074 | +$31 +2.9% | 10 |
| 533d |  N1KOLAI5 | 3–4 | BuyNo96¢ → 0¢ | $2,385 | −$2,385 −100% | 10 |
| 533d | Malangk | 11–14 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,085 | +$42 +3.9% | 10 |
| 533d | meropi2 fills | ≤2 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,384 | +$5 +0.1% | 10 |
| 533d | MGB2 | ≤2 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,741 | +$5 +0.3% | 10 |
| 533d |  Al-Khwarizm1 | ≤2 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,451 | +$5 +0.4% | 10 |
| 546d | 1Lunith | 5–6 | SellYes40¢ → 0¢ | $13,926 | +$13,926 +100% | — |
| 546d | Azren | 5–6 | BuyNo61¢ → 100¢ | $21,238 | +$13,579 +64% | 10 |
| 549d | Skemin | 3–4 | SellYes22¢ → 100¢ | $9,469 | −$33,574 −355% | — |
| 549d | Xendros | 3–4 | BuyNo77¢ → 0¢ | $33,145 | −$33,145 −100% | 10 |
This market will resolve according to the number of rounds of voting cast in the papal conclave that results in the election of the next bishop of Rome after Pope Francis. If no new pope is elected by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Vatican, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 3–4 means the market gives it about 100%.