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Polymarket · Tech & ScienceClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60%+ | 100% | +56 pts | +71 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 70%+ | 100% | +82 pts | +88 pts | 100¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| 45%+ | 100% | +2 pts | +2 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 50%+ | 100% | −5 pts | −6 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 169d |  iutwpfal | 60%+ | BuyNo79¢ → 0¢ | $1,059 | −$1,059 −100% | 4 |
| 223d | Timmy2344 | 60%+ | BuyNo81¢ → 0¢ | $2,159 | −$2,159 −100% | 4 |
| 231d | Instructive-Friction | 50%+ | SellYes>99¢ | $2,204 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | iutwpfal | 45%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,016 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 231d | iutwpfal | 50%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,432 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
iawa84 shares
shortguy35 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any OpenAI GPT model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 60%+ means the market gives it about 100%.